援助能改善对华印象吗——关于中国对外援助的国家形象管理效应的海量数据分析  

The National Image Management Effect of China’s Foreign Aid: An Empirical Analysis Based on GDELT Big Data

作　　者：刘丽娜 Liu Lina(Department of International Relations,Tsinghua University)

机构地区：[1]清华大学国际关系学系,北京100084

出　　处：《世界经济与政治》2022年第7期34-57,156,157,共26页World Economics and Politics

摘　　要：对外援助常被看作塑造国家形象、开展公共外交的重要外交政策工具。关于对外援助项目能否达到改善对华印象的效应,既有研究并未给出明确的答案。作者首先从理论上探究援助改善对华印象的机制,然后在实证部分运用双重差分模型,对全球事件、语言和语调数据库的1316803个观察数据以及2000—2014年中国对外援助项目进行地理坐标距离计算和时间匹配,探究中国对外援助项目选择路径以及对华印象改善机制的时间效应和距离效应,发现中国对外援助项目存在选择偏好,即以改善式援助为主。此外,援助的对华印象改善效应在援助项目结束后5—6年达到峰值,随后逐渐减弱,但回落速度较慢、长期效应依然存在;在项目实施之初,对华印象改善效应则存在反向作用和倒退期。这些研究结果表明,中国在对外援助项目实施时需要密切关注民意反馈,更好地实现项目落地的“软着陆”;同时应注意关注援助项目的长期动力,增强项目的对华印象改善效应的持久性和长远性。Foreign aid is often regarded as an important foreign policy tool to build the national image. However,China’s foreign aid has faced many criticisms and doubts in recent years. Could foreign aid improve the public impression of China? Existing studies do not give a clear answer or even draw an opposite conclusion. The author proves that China’s foreign aid projects can achieve the effect of national image management.The author firstly puts forward a theoretical explanation. In the empirical part,the author uses the difference in difference model to analyze 1316803 observations from the Global Event,Language and Tone Database(GDELT) and China’s foreign aid projects from 2000 to 2014. China favours ameliorative aid,in other words,channeling aid to areas where it is viewed negatively. The study also finds that the mechanism of improving the impression of China by aid reaches its peak within five or six years after the end of the aid project,and then gradually weakens,but the long-term effect still exists. However,at the beginning of the implementation of the project,there is a reverse effect and regression period. The results of this study inspire China to be strict with itself and pay close attention to public opinion feedback when implementing foreign aid projects,to achieve a “soft landing”rather than a “hard landing”. At the same time,attention should be paid to the long-term impetus of the aid projects to enhance the durability and long-term effect of the improvement of the public’s impression of China.

关 键 词：对外援助 国家形象管理 时间效应 距离效应 双重差分模型 

分 类 号：D82[政治法律—政治学] F114.4[政治法律—外交学]