质子交换膜燃料电池电站多米诺事故概率和风险研究  

Probability and risk analysis of domino accidents in proton exchange membrane fuel cell power plants

作　　者：徐圆圆 滕越 赵骞 王缔 易建新[1] XU Yuanyuan;TENG Yue;ZHAO Qian;WANG Di;YI Jianxin(State Key Laboratory of Fire Science,University of Science and Technology of China,Hefei Anhui 230026,China;Electric Power Research Institute,State Grid Anhui Electric Power Co.,Ltd.,Hefei Anhui 230601,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学技术大学火灾科学国家重点实验室,安徽合肥230026 [2]国网安徽省电力有限公司电力科学研究院,安徽合肥230601

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2022年第7期187-192,共6页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61871359)。

摘　　要：为探究氢能电站火灾爆炸事故发展规律,采用多米诺效应对电站进行事故概率和风险研究,建立氢能电站多米诺效应定量风险分析模型。基于设备受损概率模型与多米诺理论基础,提出氢能电站多米诺效应概率计算方法,并将方法运用到实际案例,结合SAFETI软件对具体多米诺事故场景进行定量计算。研究结果表明:氢能电站易发生多米诺事故,考虑一级多米诺效应后人员潜在死亡概率增加56%。研究结果可为制定氢能电站安全防控措施以及降低火灾爆炸事故对人员和设备的危害提供依据。In order to explore the development law of fire and explosion accidents in hydrogen power plants,the domino effect was used to study the accident probability and risk of the power plants,and a quantitative risk analysis model for the domino effect of hydrogen power plants was established.Based on the equipment damage probability model and domino theory,a method for calculating the probability of domino effect in hydrogen power plant was proposed.The calculation method was applied to the actual cases,and combined with SAFETI software,the quantitative calculation on specific domino accident scenes was conducted.The results showed that the hydrogen power plants were prone to occur the domino accidents.After considering the first-level domino effect,the potential death probability of personnel increased 3.3 times.This research provides the basis for formulating the safety prevention and control measures of hydrogen power plants,as well as reducing the hazards of fire and explosion accidents to personnel and equipments.

关 键 词：氢能电站 多米诺效应 定量风险分析 事故概率 SAFETI软件 

分 类 号：X932[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TK91[动力工程及工程热物理]