应用“未来思维”进行科学决策的国际经验与启示  

International Experience and Implications of the Application of“Futures Thinking”in Scientific Decision-making

作　　者：洪剑涛 曾露玲[2] HONG Jian-tao;ZENG Lu-ling(Xiamen MSA,Xiamen,Fujian 361026,China;Jimei University,Xiamen,Fujian 361021,China)

机构地区：[1]厦门海事局,福建厦门361026 [2]集美大学,福建厦门361021

出　　处：《中国海事》2022年第7期53-56,共4页China Maritime Safety

摘　　要：“未来思维”(Futures thinking)是目前部分国际组织和国外政府部门制定相关政策和战略规划时所采用的理论和技术。通过概括未来思维的理念和主要技术,分析英国、新西兰、新加坡政府和欧盟的应用案例,比较与目前国内决策理论和实践的区别,提出从建立海事系统的地平线扫描项目着手,加强跨部门、跨专业合作,形成具有指导性的政策研究技术应用指南,发展和完善目前的决策支持体系。Futures thinking is the theory and methodology used by some international organizations and foreign government departments in formulating relevant policies and strategic planning.Through summarizing the concept and main technologies of futures thinking,the paper analyzes its application in the UK,New Zealand,Singapore and the EU,in comparison with the present domestic decision-making theories and practice.It proposes starting from the establishment of maritime horizon project,strengthening cross-departmental and cross-professional cooperation,formulating guiding policy research and technology application guide,developing and improving the present decision support system.

关 键 词：未来思维 地平线扫描 政策制定 

分 类 号：G303[文化科学]