暴雨内涝下城市道路交通系统安全韧性评估  

Safety resilience assessment of urban road traffic system under rainstorm waterlogging

作　　者：唐少虎 朱伟[2] 程光[1] 郑建春 周进[1] TANG Shaohu;ZHU Wei;CHENG Guang;ZHENG Jianchun;ZHOU Jin(College of Urban Rail Transit and Logistics,Beijing Union University,Beijing,100101,China;Institute of Urban Systems Engineering,Beijing Academy of Science and Technology,Beijing 100035,China)

机构地区：[1]北京联合大学城市轨道交通与物流学院,北京100101 [2]北京市科学技术研究院城市系统工程研究所,北京100035

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2022年第7期143-150,共8页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFB1715700,2018YFC0809900);北京市教委科技计划项目(KM202111417003);北京联合大学“人才强校优选计划”(BPHR2020DZ04)。

摘　　要：为评估暴雨内涝对城市道路交通系统的安全韧性影响,通过分析道路交通系统安全韧性因素,划分排水网、道路网、交通网及应急网等4层网络,构建城市道路交通系统韧性网络分层模型,并给出模型内涵与机制;结合该分层模型设计系统韧性评估指标体系,采用模糊层次分析法(FAHP)给出定性和定量相结合的系统韧性评估方法;最后,以北京某区域暴雨内涝灾害实例进行验证分析。结果表明:3次降雨后,系统韧性机能曲线均产生严重下降,降幅分别为68.18%,51.28%和59.52%,系统平均韧性为0.57,韧性评估结果为0.53,评估结果和实例分析基本一致。所提方法能够开展暴雨内涝下的城市道路交通系统安全韧性及演化趋势分析,准确评估系统安全韧性,从而提高系统安全韧性的管理水平。In order to evaluate the impact of a rainstorm waterlogging on the resilience of urban road traffic systems,the resilience network hierarchical model of the urban road traffic system was constructed by analyzing the safety resilience factors of the road traffic system.Four layers of networks were divided,including drainage network,road network,traffic network and emergency network,and the connotation and mechanism of the model were given.Combined with the hierarchical model,a resilience evaluation index system was designed.Furthermore,a qualitative and quantitative evaluation method of urban road traffic system resilience was given by using FAHP.Finally,a case study of a rainstorm waterlogging disaster in a region of Beijing was carried out.The results show that the resilience function curves of the system all decreased seriously after three rainfalls,with the decline ranges of 68.18%,51.28%and 59.52%,respectively.The average resilience of the system is 0.57,and the resilience evaluation result is 0.53.The evaluation result is consistent with the example analysis.The proposed method can analyze the safety resilience,and evolution trend of urban road traffic systems under rainstorm waterlogging,realize the accurate evaluation of system safety resilience,and improve the management level of system safety resilience.

关 键 词：暴雨内涝 城市道路交通系统 韧性评估 韧性模型 模糊层次分析法(FAHP) 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]