居民消费提速的城乡和地区异质性福利效应研究  

Welfare Effect of Urban-rural and Regional Heterogeneity of Household Consumption Growth Acceleration

作　　者：陈太明[1] CHEN TaiMing(Dongbei University of Finance and Economics,Dalian 116025)

机构地区：[1]东北财经大学,辽宁大连116025

出　　处：《财贸研究》2022年第6期1-11,共11页Finance and Trade Research

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅高等学校基本科研项目面上项目“经济周期对消费过度敏感性的作用机制研究:理论与微观证据”(LJKR0431);国家自然科学基金面上项目“中间汇率制度为何长期存在:经验识别、理论解释与政策评估”(72173074);国家自然科学基金青年项目“改革开放成效的多维测度与机理研究:基于居民消费的波动、波动与增长联系、增长视域的模型、实证与政策意涵”(71403044)。

摘　　要：构建嵌入反事实消费增长率的动态随机模型分析消费增长提速对居民福利的影响,使用我国省际城乡数据定量测算居民消费增长提速的福利效应。结果表明:消费增长提速将显著增进居民福利,且城乡和地区异质性特征显著;多数省份的城镇福利效应大于农村。因此,应当设计异质化的政策路径刺激居民消费,有针对性地刺激那些增长率偏离较大省份的居民消费增长是更紧迫的政策选择。This paper constructs a dynamic stochastic theoretical model that including counterfactual consumption growth to analyze the impact of consumption growth acceleration on residents’welfare,and calculates the welfare effect of resident consumption growth acceleration by using the provincial urban-rural data in China.The results show that consumption growth acceleration significantly enhances the welfare of residents,and characteristics of urban-rural and regional heterogeneity are significant.For most provinces,the welfare effect of urban is greater than that of rural areas.Therefore,a more urgent policy choice is to take heterogeneous policies to stimulate household consumption,targeted to stimulate those provinces whose growth rate deviates from the larger consumption growth.

关 键 词：消费增长 经济增长 福利效应 异质性 

分 类 号：F061.4[经济管理—政治经济学]