增加值贸易视角下中国区域间隐含能贸易测算及其影响因素分析  

Estimating China’s regional embodied energy trade from the perspective of value-added trade and its influencing factors

作　　者：邓光耀 陈荟荟 DENG Guangyao;CHEN Huihui(School of Statistics,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730020,China;Center for Quantitative Analysis of Gansu Economic Development,Lanzhou University of Finance and Economics,Lanzhou 730020,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州财经大学统计学院,兰州730020 [2]兰州财经大学甘肃经济发展数量分析研究中心,兰州730020

出　　处：《资源科学》2022年第5期1036-1050,共15页Resources Science

基　　金：甘肃省杰出青年基金项目(20JR5RA206);兰州财经大学科研项目(Lzufe2021B-002);兰州财经大学丝绸之路经济研究院重点科研项目(JYYZ202102)。

摘　　要：了解中国区域间产业隐含能消耗转移状况及空间影响因素,对促进地区产业节能及平衡发展有重要影响。本文立足增加值视角,构建中国省间多产业贸易流通价值链模型,测算各省隐含能和增加值贸易,并选用地理加权回归模型探究地理距离等因素在时空上对各省国内传统、简单及复杂贸易价值链隐含能消耗总量的影响异质性。研究表明:①多数省份在满足本地最终产品需求上的隐含能占比最高,其次是出口产品,接着是国内三大贸易价值链上的隐含能占比,而跨区满足本地最终产品需求的隐含能占比最小。②多数区域都在扩张区域间及出口贸易规模。东北及三大沿海地区总体隐含能产值上升;两河中游地区经价值链获取增加值的成本更高;西南、西北两地在大部分路径的隐含能成本增加。③三大价值链隐含能转移中,东部沿海、黄河中游地区多处于隐含能转移量高位;西北地区常处于隐含能转移量低位;其他区域转移量适中。④较2012年,2015年经济发展水平对多数省份在国内三大价值链上的隐含能总消耗量的影响转为负向;科技发展水平转为仅对西南、西北地区呈正效应;产业转移与地理距离对各省的正向作用减小。本文结果对探究各区域产业隐含能流通状况、跨区贸易隐含能消耗的时空特征及制定针对性节能方法有一定意义。Understanding the transfer status and spatial influencing factors of embodied energy consumption of interval industries in China has an impact on promoting industrial energy conservation and balanced development.Based on value-added,this study constructed a multiindustry trade circulation value chain model between provinces,calculated embodied energy and value-added trade of each provinces and used a geographically weighted regression model to explore impact spatial-temporal heterogeneity of geographical distance and other factors on the total embodied energy consumption of domestic traditional,simple and complex trade value chains.The research shows most provinces had highest proportion of embodied energy in meeting local demand for final products,followed by export products.Then the proportion of embodied energy in three domestic trade value chains and the proportion of embodied energy in meeting local demand for final products across regions is smallest.Most regions were expanding scale of export and domestic trade.The overall embodied energy output value in northeast of China and three coastal areas increased;The cost of value-added through value chain in the middle reaches of two rivers was higher;the embodied energy cost of most routes in southwest and northwest of China increased.Among the embodied energy transfer of three value chains,the eastern coastal areas and the middle reaches of the Yellow River had high embodied energy transfer;the northwest of China had low embodied energy transfer;other regions were moderate.Compared with 2012,the impact of economic development level in 2015 on the total embodied energy consumption of most provinces in three domestic value chains turned negative;scientific and technological development level had a positive effect in west of China;the positive effect of industrial transfer and geographical distance on provinces decreased.The results are helpful to explore the circulation of industrial embodied energy in regions,the spatial-temporal characteristics of embodied ene

关 键 词：隐含能贸易 增加值贸易 消耗流通 投入产出模型 地理加权回归模型 中国 

分 类 号：F206[经济管理—国民经济] F724