中国林产品生产侧碳排放量的测度与效应分解--基于多区域投入产出与结构分解分析模型  

Measurement and Effect Decomposition of Carbon Emissions on the Production Side of Forest Products in China——Based on the Multi-regional Input-Output and Structural Decomposition Analysis Model

作　　者：郭玲 宁才晟[2] 王文烂 GUO Ling;NING Caisheng;WANG Wenlan(School of Economics and Management,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou 350002;Concord University College,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou350117)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学经济管理学院,福州350002 [2]福建师范大学协和学院,福州350117

出　　处：《林业经济》2022年第5期23-40,共18页Forestry Economics

基　　金：福建省教育厅中青年教师教育科研项目(科技类)“中国木质林产品全球价值链参与度对其贸易隐含碳的影响”(编号:JAT200956);福建师范大学协和学院院级科研项目(科技类)“中国木质林产品参与全球价值链对其污染贸易条件的影响”(编号:KY20200201);福建师范大学协和学院数字经济创新团队建设计划项目(编号:2021-TD-001)。

摘　　要：中国已成为林产品生产和贸易大国,承接全球价值链加工转移环节,在木材资源大量消耗和低效利用的同时也污染了环境,故有必要针对林产品生产侧碳排放进行测算与影响因素研究。文章选取中国1995-2018年“木材、木材家具制品和软木”和“纸浆、纸张和印刷品”两类木质林产品,构建多区域投入产出(MRIO)模型测算生产侧碳排放量,并运用结构分解分析(SDA)法考察其变化的影响因素。研究发现,1995-2010年两类林产品生产侧总碳排放量不断增长,加入世贸组织后外需排放占比却在下降,说明国民收入提升带来林产品内需排放的提高;而2011-2018年总排放量逐渐降低,外需排放占比却在上升,关键在于2011年碳交易点的设立间接推动林产品内需排放的下降;1995-2018年纸浆等的碳排放量远高于木材等的碳排放量。进一步发现比较碳指数大于1,中国林产品出口碳强度一直高于进口碳强度,说明其生产侧承担了较高碳排放量。结构分解的结果表明,总体上技术效应起主导的抑制作用,规模效应起主导的正向作用,并且贡献率大小接近,很大程度上实现相互抵消;结构效应贡献率最低,但对于总体上占比下降的纸浆、纸张和印刷品来说也发挥了一定程度的负效应。政策启示:在保证中国林产品贸易经济效益的同时,适当调整林产品出口规模,更需注重技术水平的提高,推进林产品产业升级。China has become a major producer and trader of forest products.It undertakes the processing and transfer of the global value chain.While massive consumption and inefficient use of wood resources,it also pollutes the environment.It is necessary to measure and study the impact factors of carbon emissions from the production side of forest products.This paper selected two types of wood forest products in China from 1995 to 2018,namely"timber,wood furniture products and cork"and"pulp,paper and printed matter",and constructed a multi-regional input-output(MRIO)model to measure the carbon emissions on the production side.Structural decomposition analysis(SDA)method examined the influencing factors of its changes.Through calculation,it was found that from1995 to 2010,the total carbon emissions on the production side of the two types of forest products continued to increase,while the proportion of external demand emissions decreased after China’s entry into the WTO,indicating that the increase in national income had brought about an increase in domestic demand emissions from forest products.From 2011 to 2018,the total emissions gradually decreased,but the proportion of external demand emissions increased.The key was that the establishment of carbon trading points in 2011 brought about a decrease in domestic demand emissions from forest products.From 1995 to 2018,the carbon emissions of"pulp,paper and printed matter"were much higher than those of"timber,wood furniture products and cork".It was further found that the comparative carbon index was greater than 1,and the export carbon intensity of China’s forest products had always been higher than the import carbon intensity,indicating that its production side bore higher carbon emissions.The results of structural decomposition showed that,in general,the technology effect played a dominant inhibitory role,the scale effect played a dominant positive role,and the contribution rates were close to each other,which canceled each other out to a large extent.The structural eff

关 键 词：林产品贸易 生产侧碳排放 结构分解分析 多区域投入产出模型 比较碳指数 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F426.88[经济管理—产业经济]