基于博弈论-后悔理论的装配式建筑施工安全风险评估模型研究  

Research on safety risk assessment of prefabricated buildings based on game theory-regret theory

作　　者：范成伟[1] 明杏芬[1] 付小红[1] 胡其志 FAN Cheng-wei;MING Xing-fen;FU Xiao-hong;HU Qi-zhi(School of Urban Construction,Wuchang Institute of Technology,Wuchang430065,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]武昌工学院城市建设学院,湖北武昌430065

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2022年第3期1132-1139,共8页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：2020年度湖北省教育厅科研计划指导性项目(B2020269)。

摘　　要：针对装配式建筑施工安全性具有随机和模糊性的特点,引入后悔理论,建立了装配式建筑施工安全风险综合评估模型。首先,考虑人、物、管理、环境4个方面,选取14个指标构建了综合评价指标体系;其次,采用改进层次分析法和改进CRITIC法分别确定评价指标的主观权重和客观权重,并基于博弈论确定指标综合权重,通过计算待评估对象总风险评估值确定最终的风险等级;最后,将所建立的基于博弈论-后悔理论的综合评估模型应用到某装配式建筑施工项目安全评估中,并将该模型评估结果与其他模型进行比较。研究表明,所建立的评估模型计算结果合理可靠,为装配式建筑施工安全评估提供了一条新思路。This study aims at establishing a new comprehensive evaluation model for the construction safety of the prefabricated buildings based on the game theory and the regret theory in terms of the fuzziness and randomness of the construction safety of prefabricated buildings.For this purpose,we first made a thorough analysis of the chief factors affecting the construction safety of prefabricated buildings,mainly including the following 14 factors:technology level and safety awareness of operators,safety management ability of manager,compliance with safety system,repair and maintenance of construction equipment,early warning and emergency treatment of safety accident,safety education and training on the spot,natural environment,and workplace environment,etc.Besides,a comprehensive evaluation index system was constructed based on four factors:human,material,management,and environment.All of the factors mentioned above should be categorized into 5 levels.Secondly,what is also worth mentioning is that,in the given paper,we managed to improve the analytic hierarchy process and the improved critical method for determining the subjective and objective weights for each index,and introduced the game theory to find the comprehensive weights of each index.The regret theory was applied to determine the regret utility.Therefore,we can obtain the comprehensive risk assessment value based on the weights and the regret utility,as well as the construction safety of prefabricated buildings degree on the degree principle.Finally,the comprehensive evaluation model based on game theory and regret theory was applied to evaluate the construction safety of prefabricated buildings.The evaluation results of the model were compared with other models,which are fully consistent with the results of TOPSIS and cloud model in line with the actual investigation on the spot.This study can provide a new idea for the construction safety evaluation of prefabricated buildings.

关 键 词：安全工程 装配式建筑 后悔理论 博弈论 

分 类 号：X947[环境科学与工程—安全科学]