基于N-K模型改进的FRAME建筑火灾风险评估  

Improved FRAME building fire risk assessment based on N-K model

作　　者：肖国清[1] 黄仁和 陈春燕[1] XIAO Guo-qing;HUANG Ren-he;CHEN Chun-yan(College of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu610500,China)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学化学化工学院,成都610500

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2022年第3期1139-1146,共8页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51874255)。

摘　　要：为了提高建筑火灾风险评估结果的准确性,降低建筑物火灾的危害性和事故损失程度,通过分析火灾事故原因,对FRAME模型中的评价指标体系进行改进和优化,探讨建筑消防安全管理水平对建筑物火灾风险、人员风险、建筑内活动风险的影响,并利用改进的FRAME模型评估堪培拉市某大楼的火灾风险。结果表明,采用N-K模型对指标体系中的风险因素进行耦合计算后,一级指标体系中四因素耦合风险为0.0507,大于其他耦合情况,验证了一级指标体系中增加建筑消防安全管理水平的准确性。堪培拉市该大楼的建筑物火灾风险由原来的2.11降低为1.12,人员风险由原来的6.56降低为4.24,建筑物内活动风险由原来的1.42降低为0.79,建筑物安全管理水平的增加会降低人员风险等级和建筑物内活动风险等级。Building fire risk assessment has great significance for reducing the hazard of building fire.To quantify the building fire risk reasonably and reduce the occurrence of fire accidents and accident losses,the semi-quantitative fire risk assessment method FRAME model is improved in this paper.First of all,multiple fire accident investigation reports were analyzed and the causes of these accidents were summarized.Comparing to the FRAME risk assessment model,it was found that the model lacks certain risk assessment indicators.This article intends to add missing evaluation factors into the model for improving FRAME’s evaluation system.To judge the rationality of adding these risk indicators,the N-K model was used to calculate the coupling risk value of the indicator factors,and analyze the calculation results to judge the importance of these factors to the evaluation system.The calculation result shows that the coupling risk value of the coupling system with index factors is significantly greater than the coupling value of the original system.So it is very necessary to add these indicator factors.Therefore,the following improvements to the FRAME risk assessment model were made in this article:building management level was added to the first-level indicators;flame retardant factor,surrounding fire protection capability and escape guideline were added to the third-level indicators.Secondly,according to relevant documents,standards,and norms,Analytic Hierarchy Process and corresponding calculation methods were used to assign values to the added index factors to maintain the balance between the risk and protection level in the original system,and divide the fire risk level.Then,the improved FRAME model was applied to a building in Canberra,and the fire risk assessment was carried out.Comparing with the assessment result of the original FRAME system,the fire risk value calculated by the improved FRAME model is lower.It is consistent with the actual situation,which proves the rationality of the improved FRAME model.

关 键 词：安全工程 建筑火灾风险 N-K模型 FRAME 耦合分析 

分 类 号：X924.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]