万元GDP用水量预测方法比较分析  

Comparative Analysis of Predictive Methods Water on Consumption Per 10000 Yuan

作　　者：杨波[1] 王文[2] Yang Bo;Wang Wen(ZhaiMingguo Academician Work Station,Sanya University,Sanya,Hainan 572022,China;School of Management,Sanya University,Sanya,Hainan 572022,China)

机构地区：[1]三亚学院翟明国院士工作站,海南三亚572022 [2]三亚学院管理学院,海南三亚572022

出　　处：《绿色科技》2022年第13期205-209,共5页Journal of Green Science and Technology

基　　金：海南省基础与应用基础研究计划(自然科学领域)高层次人才项目(编号:2019RC256)。

摘　　要：采用万元GDP用水量的预测方法,对水资源规划、用水效率提升和节水型社会的建立具有重要意义。以海南为研究对象,对比研究和分析了灰色系统模型法、指数法、年均递减率法和相关关系分析法等4种万元GDP预测方法。结果表明:至2025年,上述4种方法预测的万元GDP用水量将分别降至41.05 m^(3)、40.02 m^(3)、43.29 m^(3)和66.43 m^(3)。预测准确性分析表明,2018~2020年间,灰色系统模型法预测误差分别为-7.29%、-13.80%和14.98%,指数法预测误差分别为-7.06%、-13.93%和-15.49%,年均递减率法预测误差分别为-1.47%、-8.48%和-9.84%,相关关系分析法的预测误差分别为-1.02%、-3.18%和+1.96%。4种方法在准确度上有明显的差别:相关关系分析法预测准确度最高,采用年均递减率法、灰色系统模型法和指数法进行万元GDP预测分析时,结果都倾向于偏低,且预测时间越长,误差越大。Mastering the forecasting method of water consumption per 10000 yuan GDP is of great significance for water resources planning,improvement of water use efficiency and the establishment of a water-saving society.Taking Hainan Province as the research object,four prediction methods,such as grey system model method,index method,annual decline rate method and correlation analysis method were compared and analyzed.The results showed that the water consumption of per 10000 yuan predicted by the above four methods will be reduced to 41.05m^(3),40.02m^(3),43.29m^(3) and 66.43m^(3) respectively by 2025.The prediction accuracy analysis showed that from 2018 to 2020,the prediction errors of grey system model method were-7.29%,-13.80%and 14.98%respectively;the prediction errors of index method were-7.06%,-13.93%and-15.49%respectively;the prediction errors of average annual decline rate method were-1.47%,-8.48%and-9.84%respectively,and the prediction errors of correlation analysis method were-1.02%,-3.18%and+1.96%respectively.In addition,there were obvious differences in predictive accuracy.The correlation analysis method had the highest prediction accuracy.When the annual decline rate method,grey system model method and index method were used to predict and analyze water consumption per 10000 yuan,the predictive results tend to be low.The longer the prediction time took,the greater the error.

关 键 词：万元GDP用水量 预测 海南 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]