低碳城市试点对邻接非试点城市碳排放的外部效应  

External effects of low⁃carbon city pilot on carbon emissions of adjacent non⁃pilot cities

作　　者：郑汉 郭立宏[1] ZHENG Han;GUO Lihong(School of Economics and Management,Northwest University,Xi’an Shaanxi 710127,China)

机构地区：[1]西北大学经济管理学院,陕西西安710127

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2022年第7期71-80,共10页China Population,Resources and Environment

摘　　要：低碳城市试点是实施低碳发展战略的重要抓手,对于实现碳达峰、碳中和具有重要意义。然而,现有对该政策的研究多以试点地区为探讨主体,忽视了政策可能的外部效应。文章基于2006—2019年中国284个城市面板数据,以2012年和2017年两批低碳城市的邻接非试点城市为研究对象,将低碳城市试点视为“准自然实验”,探讨低碳城市试点对邻接非试点城市碳排放的外部效应。研究发现:①“鲶鱼效应”是低碳城市试点的外部效应,该效应显著降低了邻接非试点城市的碳排放,该结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。②潜在机制检验表明,试点城市的环境质量是传导“鲶鱼效应”的渠道,能够有效激励邻接非试点城市进行碳减排。③以PM_(2.5)为环境治理指标的检验发现,“鲶鱼效应”对邻接非试点城市环境治理工作的激励存在上限,为“环保资格赛”逻辑提供了新的经验证据。④异质性分析表明,“鲶鱼效应”对属于非资源型城市和主政官员晋升几率高的邻接非试点城市的减排工作具有更强的激励效果。据此,文章提出以下政策建议:①试点政策的效果评估不仅要考虑试点地区,还需兼顾可能受影响的非试点地区;②中央政府应继续完善多维的干部考核评价体系,以激励地方政府重视减排工作;③实现碳达峰、碳中和目标必须坚持全国一盘棋,对于碳减排基础较弱的地区应适当提高政策倾斜力度。The low-carbon city pilot initiative is an important starting point for the implementation of a low-carbon development strate‑gy,which is of great significance for achieving the carbon peak and neutrality goals.However,the existing research on the policy mostly focuses on the pilot areas,ignoring the possible external effects of the policy.Based on the panel data of 284 cities in China from 2006 to 2019,this article took two batches of non-pilot cities adjacent to low-carbon cities in 2012 and 2017 as the research objects,regarded the low-carbon city pilot as a‘quasi-natural experiment’,and discussed the external effects of the low-carbon city pilot on the carbon emissions of non-pilot cities.The research found that:①The‘catfish effect’was the external effect of the pilot low-carbon cities,which significantly reduced the carbon emissions of the adjacent non-pilot cities.This conclusion was still valid after a series of robust‑ness tests.②The potential mechanism test showed that the environmental quality of the pilot cities was the channel to transmit the‘catfish effect,’which could effectively encourage the neighboring non-pilot cities to reduce carbon emissions.③Using PM_(2.5) as the en‑vironmental governance indicator,this study found that the‘catfish effect’had an upper limit on the incentive of environmental gover‑nance in adjacent non-pilot cities,which provided new empirical evidence for the logic of‘environmental protection qualification com‑petition.’④The heterogeneity results showed that the‘catfish effect’had a stronger incentive effect on the emission reduction work of non-resource-based cities and adjacent non-pilot cities with a high promotion probability of chief officials.Therefore,this article puts forward the following policy suggestions:①The effect evaluation of the pilot policy should not only consider the pilot areas,but also take into account the non-pilot areas that may be affected.②The central government should continue to improve the multidimen

关 键 词：低碳城市试点 碳排放 双重差分法 鲶鱼效应 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]