疫情防控背景下城市居民出行特性及影响因素分析  

Analysis on the Influence Factors of Travel Mode under the Background of Epidemic Prevention and Control

作　　者：徐程[1] 郑贻远 管满泉[1] 黄星源 XU Cheng;ZHENG Yiyuan;GUAN Manquan;HUANG Xingyuan(Zhejiang Police College,Hangzhou 310000,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江警察学院交通管理工程系,浙江杭州310000

出　　处：《中国人民公安大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第2期31-37,共7页Journal of People’s Public Security University of China(Science and Technology)

基　　金：浙江省基础公益研究计划项目(LGF21E080002);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(19YJCZH200)。

摘　　要：探究疫情防控背景下城市环境、居民个人属性、居民出行行为对居民出行模式安全性的影响程度,基于问卷调查分析了疫情期间的出行频率、出行目的、出行方式变化等特征,并得出个人属性、城市属性、出行特征、出行心理4类因素对居民出行模式安全性的影响程度。通过建立有序Logisitic回归模型分析影响疫情期居民出行模式安全性的因素,研究结果表明,安全性顺序对出行模式安全性有显著的正向影响,道路网密度、弹性出行和出行频率对出行模式安全性有显著的负面影响。研究结果将为新冠肺炎疫情期间的交通管控对策制定、群体出行的安全性评估以及高风险人群的交通管控策略制定提供重要的理论参考价值。In order to examine the impact of the urban environment、personal attributes and residents travel behavior on the safety of travel mode,this paper carries out a questionnaire to analyze the travel frequency,purpose,and mode changes during the pandemic period.Research findings show that the influences of personal attributes,city attributes,travel characteristics,travel psychology on influencing residents’travel.Next,an Ordered Logistic Regression model is built to analyze factors influencing the safety of residents’travel model.Model analysis results suggest a positive influence of the safety sequence on the safety of the travel model but a significantly negative impact of the road network density,flexible travel and travel frequency on the safety of the travel mode.It is hoped that the research results can provide theoretical references for assessment of the group travel safety and the study on prevention and control strategies of high-risk groups.

关 键 词：出行模式 新型冠状病毒 有序logistic回归 疫情防控 出行心理 

分 类 号：D035.37[政治法律—政治学]