我国道路交通事故死亡人数影响因素及管理对策研究  

Study on the Influencing Factors and Management Countermeasures of Death Toll for Road Traffic Accidents in China

作　　者：田振中 孙振雷[1] TIAN Zhenzhong;SUN Zhenlei(Department of Traffic Management Engineering,Henan Police College,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]河南警察学院交通管理工程系,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《中国人民公安大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第2期38-44,共7页Journal of People’s Public Security University of China(Science and Technology)

基　　金：河南省哲学社会科学规划项目(2021BFX021);河南警察学院重点科研项目(HNJ Y-2021-Z D-01)。

摘　　要：探究道路交通事故死亡人数影响因素,对于推动我国道路交通安全工作高质量发展具有十分重要的意义。在借鉴已有文献的基础上,构建了以人口因素、经济发展、车辆与道路、医疗卫生服务水平为外因潜在变量,以道路交通事故死亡人数为内因潜在变量的理论模型,并运用PLS-SEM模型量化分析了道路交通事故死亡人数的影响因素与作用机制。结果表明:人口因素、车辆与道路、经济发展均对道路交通事故死亡人数有显著的正向直接影响,其中人口因素的直接影响效应最大,影响系数为0.561;医疗卫生服务水平对道路交通事故死亡人数产生显著的负向直接影响,影响系数为-0.546;经济发展还通过人口因素、车辆与道路、医疗卫生服务对道路交通事故死亡人数有显著的间接影响。基于研究结果,提出了相应的管理对策。Analyzing the factors of death toll for road traffic accidents is of great importance to promote the high-quality development of road traffic safety work in China.Based on the existing literature,a hypothesis model was constructed with population factors,economic development,vehicles and roads,medical health service level as exogenous latent variables,and death toll for road traffic accidents as endogenous latent variable.The PLS-SEM model was used to quantitatively analyze the influencing factors and mechanism of death toll for road traffic accidents.The results showed that population factors,vehicle and road factors,economic development all had a significant positive direct effect on death toll of road traffic accidents,in which population factors had the greatest influence with an influence coefficient of 0.561.Medical health service level had a significant negative direct effect on road traffic accident death toll,with an influence coefficient of-0.546.Furthermore,economic development had a significant indirect effect on road traffic accident death toll through population factors,vehicle and road factors,medical health service level.According to the above results,the corresponding management countermeasures were put forward.

关 键 词：道路交通事故 死亡人数 影响因素 管理对策 PL S-SEM模型 

分 类 号：D631.5[政治法律—政治学]