流动人口消费需求潜力:规模估算与释放路径  

Potential Demand of Migrants Consumption:Scale Estimation and Release Path

作　　者：孙豪 桂河清[3] 柴国俊[4] Sun Hao;Gui Heqing;Chai Guojun

机构地区：[1]复旦大学经济学院 [2]浙江工商大学经济学院 [3]聊城大学商学院 [4]河北经贸大学商学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2022年第7期122-136,共15页Finance & Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“消费结构升级中的消费分化研究”(19YJC790115);国家自然科学基金青年项目“房价上涨对消费结构升级及分化的冲击研究”(71903174);浙江工商大学2021年度商务部专项课题“我国居民消费结构测度及升级政策研究”(2021SWB003Z)的资助。

摘　　要：中国拥有庞大的流动人口群体,释放流动人口消费需求潜力,有助于扩大国内消费需求。基于全国流动人口动态监测调查专题数据,本文采用倾向得分匹配和分类比较分析方法,估算了流动人口的消费需求潜力。研究发现:流动人口消费需求潜力为11.58%,消费需求潜力规模为6319亿元,释放流动人口消费需求潜力,能提高居民消费率0.71个百分点;提升流动人口需求收入弹性、增强消费信心、降低预防性储蓄动机等,是释放流动人口消费需求潜力的主要路径。畅通双循环新发展格局、促进流动人口市民化以及推进新型城镇化建设,有助于释放流动人口消费需求潜力。China has a huge migrant population,releasing the consumption demand potential of migrant population will help expand the consumption demand of residents.Based on the data of the national floating population dynamic monitoring survey in 2017,the empirical study was conducted after sample selection bias was eliminated by using propensity score matching and classification comparative analysis method.The results show that the potential consumption demand of migrants is 11.58%,which is about 631.9 billion yuan.Releasing the consumption demand potential of migrants can increase the consumption rate of residents by 0.71 percentage points.Improving the income elasticity of the migrants’demand,enhancing consumer confidence,and reducing the motivation for precautionary savings are the main paths to unleash the potential of the migrants’consumption demand.Constructing a new development pattern,promoting the citizenization of migrants and promoting the construction of new urbanization will help release the consumption demand potential of migrants.

关 键 词：流动人口 消费需求潜力 规模估算 倾向得分匹配 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学]