中美贸易不确定性、贸易收益及其应对  

The Sino-US Trade Uncertainty,Trade Benefits and Responses

作　　者：李俊江[1] 韩江雪 Li Junjiang;Han Jiangxue

机构地区：[1]吉林大学经济学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2022年第7期137-148,共12页Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“技术进步偏向性、要素禀赋异质性与新时代我国地区技术赶超模式选择研究”(21BJY251)的资助。

摘　　要：自2018年以来,美国频繁与多国发生贸易摩擦,贸易摩擦对贸易收益变化以及全球整体贸易结构变化产生重大影响。中美贸易不确定性为贸易进出口发展带来了挑战和机遇,量化中美贸易不确定性产生的影响尤为重要。本文通过构建演化贸易收益模型,基于中美经济规模和贸易依赖度,分析了2000—2020年两国贸易收益份额的变化,进一步分析了中美贸易不确定性对两国贸易收益的影响。研究发现,中美贸易摩擦对两国都会产生负面影响;相较中国而言,美国经济规模大,依赖度低,贸易摩擦对其造成的负面影响较小。本文建议在处理中美两国贸易关系上,要依据不同时期制定平滑和接续性强的贸易政策。Since the trade frictions caused by US happened frequently in 2018,the trade benefits of the two countries and the changes in global trade brought by the frictions have attracted attention from all sides.The uncertainty of SinoUS trade has brought chance and challenge to the development of import and export trade,and it is particularly important to quantify the impact of the uncertainty.This paper analyzes the data of Sino-US import and export trade and GDP from2000 to 2020 by constructing the trade benefits evolved model and empirically tests the impact of Sino-US trade uncertainty on the trade benefits of the two countries.The study finds that Sino-US trade frictions will have a negative impact on both countries.The United States,as a leader,has a larger relative scale and lower dependence of trade,while trade frictions have a greater negative impact on China.This paper suggests that China should deal with Sino-American relations in different terms,the short term,medium term and long term,and orderly connection between different periods is instrumental in the implementation of trade policies.

关 键 词：贸易 竞争 进出口 博弈论 

分 类 号：F742[经济管理—国际贸易]