内蒙古地区四季和年降水量趋势分析  

Trend analysis of seasonal and annual precipitation in Inner Mongolia

作　　者：高绍鑫 刘静 常煜 GAO Shaoxin;LIU Jing;CHANG Yu(Hulun Buir Meterological Bureau of Inner Mongolia,Hulun Buir 021008;Hailar Meterological Bureau of Inner Mongolia,Hulun Buir 021008)

机构地区：[1]内蒙古呼伦贝尔市气象局,呼伦贝尔021008 [2]内蒙古海拉尔区气象局,呼伦贝尔021008

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2022年第4期426-433,共8页Torrential Rain and Disasters

摘　　要：利用1970—2019年内蒙古地区110个国家站降水量资料,采用经验正交函数(EOF)分析、重标极差分析(R/S)和非周期循环分析,统计四季和年降水量时间序列的Hurst指数(H)、分维数(D)和非周期循环的平均循环长度,分析降水量变化趋势和记忆周期。结果表明:(1)内蒙古地区年降水量变化呈增多趋势,其中在东部的偏东地区增多最显著,变化趋势具有持续性特征,持续时间为8 a,但在内蒙古西部的偏南地区和东部的局地区域年降水量呈减少趋势;(2)春季、秋季和冬季年降水量的年代变化呈增多趋势,夏季呈减少趋势,特别是冬季在东部的偏北地区的个别区域Hurst指数H=1,呈现完全预测特征,降水量未来趋势为增多趋势且通过95%的显著性检验;(3)四季降水量过去的增量与未来的增量都呈正相关,夏季降水量减少趋势的持续性最弱,冬季降水量增多趋势的持续性最强,春季、夏季、秋季和冬季的记忆长度分别为8 a、8 a、9 a和10 a。Using precipitation data at 110 national stations during 1970 to 2019 in Inner Mongolia and based on empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis method,rescaled range analysis(R/S)and non-periodic cycle analysis,the values of Hurst parameter H,fractal dimension D and non-cycle average cycle length of seasonal and annual precipitation in Inner Mongolia were calculated.Then the variation trends and memory cycles of precipitation at the time series were analyzed.The results show that:(1)The annual precipitation slightly increases.Among regions,the increasing trend of precipitation is the most significant in the east about eastern region of Inner Mongolia.The change trend has a persistent feature,lasting for 8 years.But,there has a decreasing trend in the south about western region and individual areas of the east region.(2)The precipitation in spring,autumn and winter shows an increasing trend,while the precipitation in summer shows a decreasing trend.Especially,the increase is the most obvious in the individual north area about eastern region where H equals 1.It presents the characteristics of a complete prediction,and the future trend of precipitation is increasing.Furthermore,this passes 95%significance test.(3)The past increment of precipitation in the four seasons is positively correlated with the future increment.The persistence of the decreasing trend of precipitation in summer is the weakest,and the increasing trend of precipitation in winter is the strongest.The memory length of spring,summer,autumn and winter is 8 years,8 years,9 years and 10 years,respectively.

关 键 词：重标极差分析 非周期循环 四季和年降水量 趋势分析 

分 类 号：P468.0[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]