民航华北空管两代快速更新循环同化数值预报系统的检验评估  

Evaluation of Two Generation Rapid Refresh Assimilation Numerical Prediction Systems in North China Regional Air Traffic Management Bureau of CAAC

作　　者：许晨璐 袁慧玲[2] 吴玲芳 柳贵钧 XU Chenlu;YUAN Huiling;WU Lingfang;LIU Guijun(Meteorological Center of North China Regional Air Traffic Management Bureau of CAAC,Beijing 100621;School of Atmospheric Sciences/Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather Ministry of Education,Nanjing University,Nanjing 210023)

机构地区：[1]中国民用航空华北地区空中交通管理局气象中心,北京100621 [2]南京大学大气科学学院/中尺度灾害性天气教育部重点实验室,南京210023

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2022年第4期523-532,共10页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题:2017YFC1502703;中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金:0209-14380104;华北空管局科技立项:202007。

摘　　要：民航华北空管气象中心自主研发了第一代快速更新循环同化数值预报系统(NMC-RAP)和更新的第二代快速循环同化数值预报系统(NMC-HRRR)。针对2020年和2021年6~8月华北区域3次大范围雷雨天气过程的雷达反射率的预报结果,从雷达回波的空间分布、航空雷暴临近预报系统(Aviation Thunderstorm Nowcasting System,ATNS)评分、主要机场对流预警的预报效果等角度,对两代快速更新循环同化数值预报系统的预报性能进行了对比分析。结果表明:1)两代系统均能较好体现雷达回波的空间分布特征,回波强度也与区域雷达拼图实况资料比较接近。对于强回波中心落区这样的关键预报,NMC-HRRR总能体现出更大的优势,与实况更吻合。2)两代系统的弱回波预报的ATNS评分均优于强回波。其中,NMC-HRRR 0~9 h内预报的强、弱回波评分整体较高,特别是0~360 min和第540分钟的强回波预报,显著优于NMC-RAP。3)NMC-HRRR在预报对飞行有影响的回波开始出现的时间方面优势明显。对5个主要机场强对流预警的整体评估,定量证明了NMC-HRRR相较NMC-RAP,在强、弱回波的定时、定点预报准确率及其时空分布的改进都是有显著效果的。The first-generation rapid refresh assimilation numerical forecast system of North Meteorological Center(NMC-RAP)and the upgraded second generation system(NMC-HRRR,the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh assimilation numerical forecast system of North Meteorological Center)have been independently developed by the Meteorological Center of North China Regional Air Traffic Management Bureau of CAAC.The radar reflectivity forecasts of two generation systems are evaluated comprehensively for three large-scale thunderstorms in North China during June to August of 2020 and 2021,in terms of the spatial distribution,Aviation Thunderstorm Nowcasting System(ATNS)score,and severe convective warning of major airports.Results show that the spatial distribution characteristics are well captured by both forecast systems,and the intensity is also closer to the composite radar reflectivity observations.NMC-HRRR always performs better in critical forecasts,such as the coverage of strong reflectivity echo,which is more consistent with the observations.For the two generation systems,the ATNS scores of weak echoes are better than strong echoes.In general,the strong and weak echo scores of NMC-HRRR forecasts within 0−9 h are significantly better than NMC-RAP,especially for the strong echoes in 0−360 min and at the 540th minute.NMC-HRRR shows better forecasting in strong and weak echoes,and the timing when the echo that affects the flight.The total counts of occurrences of severe convective warning from five major airports quantitatively prove that NMC-HRRR shows effective improvements over NMC-RAP to forecast strong and weak echoes with better accuracy in time and space.

关 键 词：民航气象 快速更新循环同化数值预报系统 雷达反射率 航空雷暴临近预报系统(ATNS)评分 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]