管理层语调与股价崩盘风险:沟通动机抑或战略动机?——来自MD&A文本分析的证据  

Management Tone and Stock Price Crash Risk:Communication Motivation or Strategic Motivation?—Evidence from MD&A Text Analysis

作　　者：王焰辉 傅传锐 李万福[2] Wang Yanhui;Fu Chuanrui;Li Wanfu(School of Economics and Management,Fuzhou University,Fuzhou,350116;School of Accounting,Nanjing University of Finance&Economics,Nanjing,210023)

机构地区：[1]福州大学经济与管理学院,福州350116 [2]南京财经大学会计学院,南京210023

出　　处：《珞珈管理评论》2022年第3期65-93,共29页Luojia Management Review

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“环境规制、企业创新与产业转型升级:基于节能减排监管的理论与实证研究”(项目批准号:71872046);福建省社会科学研究基地重大项目“福建发展碳汇金融的体制机制与对策研究”(项目批准号:FJ2021MJDZ012)。

摘　　要：本文以我国A股非金融上市公司为研究样本,探究上市公司年度报告管理层讨论与分析(MD&A)语言风格(管理层语调)的股价崩盘效应,首次实证检验了管理层语调与股价崩盘风险的非线性关系。研究结果表明:管理层语调与股价崩盘风险呈U形关系,即适宜的管理层语调能有效抑制股价崩盘风险,过高或者过低的管理层语调加剧股价崩盘风险,并且两者的U形关系在较低的不确定性环境中更为显著。作用机制检验发现,管理层语调通过上市公司信息不对称和经营风险两个传导路径影响股价崩盘风险。进一步分析发现,在一定程度上,管理层语调是公司战略驱动下管理层向外界释放的乐观信号;管理层语调既有如实反映公司经营业绩的部分,也有刻意误导的成分,且刻意误导的成分越高,股价崩盘风险越大。研究结论为增进MD&A文本信息语言风格的理解、改善公司治理和深化资本市场改革提供了有益的启示。This paper takes the A-share non-financial listed companies in China as a sample to explore the stock market crash effect of the annual report management discussion and analysis(MD&A)language style(management tone).This is the first empirical test to examine the non-linear relationship between the management tone and the stock price crash risk.The results show that there is a U-shaped relationship between the management tone and the stock price crash risk,that is,the appropriate management tone can effectively suppress the stock price crash risk.The optimism of too high or too low management tone increases the stock price crash risk,and the U-shaped relationship between them is more significant in a low uncertainty environment.The mechanism test found that the management tone affects the stock price crash risk through two transmission paths:information asymmetry and operational risk.Further analysis reveals that to some extent,the management tone is an optimistic signal that management releases to the outside world driven by corporate strategy.The management tone has both the true part of the company s operating performance and the deliberately misleading component.The higher the deliberately misleading component,the higher stock price crash risk.The inverted U-shaped relationship between the management tone and the cumulative excess return of stocks goes through a process of continuous strengthening,then weakening and disappearing.The results of the study provide useful enlightenment for improving the understanding of MD&A text information language style,improving corporate governance and deepening the reform of capital market.

关 键 词：管理层语调 股价崩盘风险 环境不确定性 信息不对称 经营风险 

分 类 号：F830.91[经济管理—金融学]