基于SD模型的调水工程突发公共事件信息扩散研究  

Research on information diffusion of public emergency accidents in water transfer project based on SD model

作　　者：刘孟凯[1] 古海平 LIU Mengkai;GU Haiping(School of Management,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430065,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉科技大学恒大管理学院,湖北武汉430065

出　　处：《人民长江》2022年第7期221-226,231,共7页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51779196)。

摘　　要：调水工程一般具有线路长、交叉建筑物多等特性,工程沿线民众社会活动频繁,易由突发公共事件信息扩散引发社会稳定风险。首先分析了调水工程突发事件社会风险扩散影响因素,构建了包括政府子系统、工程部门子系统、媒体子系统及民众子系统的调水工程突发社会公共事件信息扩散系统动力学模型,并选取跨河大桥上化学品泄露突发公共事件进行仿真研究。结果表明:政府和工程部门对风险事件信息扩散的影响最大;通过降低事件风险等级和提高各个子系统的沉寂系数,可以降低社会突发公共事件的负面影响,维护社会稳定。Water transfer projects generally have the characteristics of long lines and numbers of crossing buildings.People along the project have frequent social activities, and it is easy to cause social stability risks due to the spread of public emergency information.Based on the analysis on the factors affecting the social risk diffusion of water transfer engineering emergencies, this research constructs a system dynamics model for information diffusion of emergent social public events in water transfer engineering, including government subsystems, engineering department subsystems, media subsystems, and public subsystems.And we select a chemical leakage emergency public incident on a cross-river bridge to conduct simulation.The results show that the government and engineering departments have the greatest impact on the spread of risk event information.Reducing the level of incident risk and increasing the silence of each subsystem can reduce the negative impact of social emergencies and maintain social stability.

关 键 词：调水工程 突发公共事件 社会风险 信息扩散 系统动力学 

分 类 号：TV91[水利工程—水利水电工程]