台湾地区民众“统独”立场影响因素综合分析  

A Comprehensive Analysis of Factors Influencing the Stance of pepole in Taiwan on “Unification or Independence”

作　　者：孔小惠 周平 Kong Xiaohui;Zhou Ping(Department of Political Science, School of Public affairs, Zhejiang University;Administrative Management at School of Public Administration, Guizhou University)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学公共管理学院政治学系 [2]贵州大学公共管理学院

出　　处：《台海研究》2022年第2期14-25,36,共13页Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies

摘　　要：台湾地区民众的“统独”立场受到复杂因素的影响。学界对该议题已有丰富的研究,但既有研究缺乏对影响因素的综合性分析,也缺乏对主要因素解释力大小的研究。本文以马斯洛需求层次理论为基础提出研究假设,将影响台湾民众“统独”立场的因素置于理论框架中并运用多元有序logistics回归分析。实证研究表明:(1)身份认同位于需求的最高层次,越倾向于“中国台湾人认同”的台湾地区民众则越容易选择偏向“独立”。(2)大陆武力统一的决心和美国对台军事援助会对台湾地区民众的“统独”立场产生显著影响。(3)两岸经贸交流带来的利益对台湾民众的“统独”立场依然发挥作用。本文的研究发现有利于大陆更好了解台湾地区民意,进一步完善对台政策。The stance of pepole in Taiwan on “unification or independence” is affected by complex factors.There have been abundant studies on this topic in the academia,but a comprehensive analysis of the influencing factors and research on the explanatory power of the main factors is absent from the existing scholarship.This paper proposes a research hypothesis based on Maslow’s hierarchy of needs theory,and analyzes the factors affecting the stance of pepole in Taiwan on “unification or independence” in a systematic theoretical framework with the help of multiple and ordered logistic regression.This empirical study shows that:(1) Identity is at the highest level of need,and pepole in Taiwan with a heightened sense of “Taiwan Residents identity” tend to favor “independence”.(2) The determination of the Chinese Mainland to reunite with Taiwan through military means and the military assistance from the U.S.have a significant impact on the stance of the Taiwan Residents on “unification or independence”.(3) Cross-Strait economic and trade exchanges still have a significant impact on the stance of the Taiwan Residentson “unification or independence”.The findings of this paper will help the mainland better understand Taiwan’s public opinion and further improve its policies toward Taiwan.

关 键 词：马斯洛理论 logistics回归 台湾地区民众“统独”立场 

分 类 号：D618[政治法律—政治学] D675.8[政治法律—中外政治制度]