日美同盟干涉台海问题:理论、方式及其趋势  

Japan-U.S.Alliance’s Interference in the Cross-Strait Issues:Theory,Method and Trend

作　　者：胡啸宇 Hu Xiaoyu(The United Front Theory Teaching and Researching Apartment,Party School of the Foshan Committee of the communist Party of China)

机构地区：[1]中共佛山市委党校统战理论教研部

出　　处：《台海研究》2022年第2期88-97,110,共11页Cross-Taiwan Strait Studies

摘　　要：乌克兰危机与外部势力干涉引发两岸同胞对台海局势的高度担忧,日本前首相安倍晋三早前妄言“‘台湾有事’等同日本有事,也可以说是‘日美同盟’有事。”一旦“台湾有事”,日美同盟真的会协防台湾地区吗?本研究认为,从历史看,日美同盟对于是否协防台湾的态度暧昧不清。从现实态势看,除非解放军先发制人发动打击,日美同盟一般不会军事介入台海,而是采取“战前威慑”、“战时制裁”、军事援助等方式来应对。当前日美同盟干涉台海问题的新动向主要表现为加强同盟内部协调、加强日美同盟的威慑和应对能力,值得我们重视和警惕。The Ukraine crisis and the interference of external forces have aroused deep concern of compatriotson both sides of the Taiwan Strait.Former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe ever gave a wild talk that“the issue of Taiwan is equivalent to the issue of Japan,which can also be said to be the issue of the Japan-U.S.alliance”.Will the Japan-U.S.alliance really defend Taiwan in the event of a“Taiwan emergency”?This study argues that historically,the Japan-U.S.alliance holds an ambiguous attitude on whether to assist in the defense of Taiwan.Under the current situation,unless the PLA launches a pre-emptive strike,the Japan-U.S.alliance will not interfere militarily in the Taiwan Strait issue,but respond by means of“pre-war deterrence”,“wartime sanctions”and military aid.At present,the new trend of the Japan-U.S.alliance’s interference in the Taiwan Strait issues is mainly manifested in strengthening the internal coordination of the alliance and enhancing its deterrence and coping capabilities,which deserves our attention and vigilance.

关 键 词：日美同盟 介入台海 威慑 制裁 军援 

分 类 号：D618[政治法律—政治学]