延迟退休的财政与就业影响及动态研究方法评价  

Financial Stabilizing Effect,Crowding-out Effect of Employment and Evaluation of Dynamic Research Method to Delay Retirement

作　　者：邹铁钉[1] Zou Tieding

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学经济学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《河南社会科学》2022年第7期44-50,共7页Henan Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“延迟退休的财政稳定功能、就业挤出效应及其交互作用机制研究”(21BJL091)。

摘　　要：以人口老龄化和劳动力供求结构失衡为背景,对延迟退休的养老财政稳定作用、就业挤出效应和动态研究方法进行综合评价,分析表明:受个体人力资本异质性和行业职业发展差异影响,为缓解养老金亏空压力和局部用工荒所推行的延迟退休改革其政策效果具有不确定性。劳动力在健康、教育、职业技能和工作经验上的分化以及同行业职业的匹配性,决定了个体社会地位、工作成就感和薪酬水平的差异化演变,延迟退休的财政稳定作用和就业挤出效应都会受此影响。以三期OLG模型为基础、包含个体人力资本异质性和行业职业发展差异的动态一般均衡分析框架,非常适合于评价延迟退休的可行性、合理性和有效性,有助于得到新的理论发现和政策启示。Under the background of population aging and uncertainty of employment environment,this paper discussed the budget balance,employment squeeze-out,and dynamic research methods which related with delay retirement.In order to cope with the process of unbalanced economic development,Chinese Government should pay attention to deal with pension deficits and local labor shortage.On the issue of pension deficits,delayed retirement may be effective.In terms of employment effect,some literature believes that there are squeeze-out effect on employment.For the feasibility,validity,and rationality of delay retirement,the heterogeneity of individual human capital and the difference in occupational development were the key factors,a good consideration was needed when we make decision to retirement policy and its choices.So,placing individual employment and government budget under a unified dynamic general equilibrium analysis,and constructing an OLG model that includes individual and job environment heterogeneity,that would be good to simulate the policy effects of delay retirement.

关 键 词：延迟退休 养老金亏空 就业挤出效应 OLG模型 

分 类 号：F8[经济管理]