天津市蓟州区短时强降水特征及预报指标研究  

Study on Characteristics and Forecast Index of Short-time Heavy Precipitation in Tianjin Jizhou District

作　　者：黄金颖 张志超 张虹 赵然 孙小林 HUANG Jinying;ZHANG Zhichao;ZHANG Hong;ZHAO Ran;SUN Xiaolin(Tianjin Jizhou District Meteorological Service,Tianjin 301900,China;Tianjin Lightning Protection Technology Center,Tianjin 300074,China;Tianjin Jizhou District Public Emergency Warning and Release Centre,Tianjin 301900,China)

机构地区：[1]天津市蓟州区气象局,天津301900 [2]天津市防雷技术中心,天津300074 [3]天津市蓟州区突发公共事件预警信息发布中心,天津301900

出　　处：《天津科技》2022年第8期31-36,共6页Tianjin Science & Technology

基　　金：蓟州区短时强降水多尺度分析及临近预报预警技术研究(202005qxzx01)。

摘　　要：利用蓟州区自动站逐小时观测资料和ERA5再分析资料对蓟州区短时强降水的时空发生规律和物理量进行了分析。结果表明:蓟州地区短时强降水发生的站次呈明显的阶段性变化;短时强降水天气主要出现在7~8月,其中7月中旬至8月上旬是高发期;短时强降水多出现在夜间凌晨左右;短时强降水的空间分布有明显的区域差异,呈北高南低的分布特征,平原地区短时强降水的发生也有明显的城郊差异;对流发生前,单站气压和湿度呈反向变化,而且这种变化在强降水发生前两三个小时内较明显,在预报蓟州短时强降水时有一定参考意义。Based on the hourly observation data in Jizhou District and the reanalysis data of ERA5,the temporal and spatial occurrence regularity and physical quantity of short-term heavy precipitation in Jizhou District are analyzed. The results show that the frequency of short-term heavy precipitation in Jizhou District show obvious periodic changes. Short-term heavy precipitation mainly occurs in July-August,with high incidence from mid-July to early August. Short-term heavy precipitation often occurs around the early morning at night. The spatial distribution of short-term heavy precipitation in Jizhou District has obvious regional differences,showing the distribution characteristics of high in the north and low in the south,and the occurrence of short-term heavy precipitation in plain areas also has obvious suburban differences. Before convection,the air pressure and humidity at a single station change in the opposite direction,and this change is more obvious within 2 or 3 hours before heavy precipitation,which has certain reference significance in forecasting short-term heavy precipitation in Jizhou District.

关 键 词：短时强降水 时空分布 发生规律 物理量分析 蓟州 

分 类 号：P456.4[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]