Modeling and analysis of the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne disease with environmental temperature fluctuation  

作　　者：O.P.Misra Joydip Dhar Omprakash Singh Sisodiya 

机构地区：[1]School of Mathematics and Allied Sciences,Jiwaji University Gwalior 474011,M.P.,India [2]Department of Applied Sciences ABV-Indian Institute of Information Technology and Management Gwalior 474015,M.P.,India

出　　处：《International Journal of Modeling, Simulation, and Scientific Computing》2022年第3期31-73,共43页建模、仿真和科学计算国际期刊（英文）

摘　　要：Most of the vector-borne diseases show a clear dependence on seasonal variation,including climate change.In this paper,we proposed a nonautonomous mathematical model consisting of a periodic system of nonlinear differential equations.In the proposed model,the realistic functional forms for the different temperature-dependent parameters are considered.The autonomous system of the proposed model is also analyzed.The nontrivial solution of the autonomous model is locally asymptotically stable if R0<1.It is shown that a unique endemic equilibrium point of the autonomous model exists when R0>1 and proved that endemic solution is linearly stable when R0>1.The nonautonomous model is shown to have a nontrivial disease-free periodic state,which is globally asymptotically stable whenever temperature-dependent reproduction number is less than unity.It is observed that a unique positive endemic periodic solution of the nonautonomous system exists only when a temperature-dependent reproduction number greater than unity,which makes for the persistence of the disease.Numerical simulation has been carried out to support the analytical results and shows the effects of temperature variability in the life span of mosquitoes as well as the persistence of the disease.

关 键 词：Mosquito-borne disease SEASONALITY temperature-dependent reproduction number periodic steady states 

分 类 号：O17[理学—数学]