基于模糊AHP-DEMATEL的北极冰区船舶冰困风险评价  

Risk assessment of ships stuck in ice in Arctic ice area based on fuzzy AHP-DEMATEL

作　　者：薛彦卓[1] 周莹 鲁阳 倪宝玉[1] XUE Yanzhuo;ZHOU Ying;LU Yang;NI Baoyu(College of Shipbuilding Engineering,Harbin Engineering University,Harbin 150001,China)

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨工程大学船舶工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《哈尔滨工程大学学报》2022年第7期944-949,992,共7页Journal of Harbin Engineering University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(U20A20327,52001087)。

摘　　要：针对风险因素识别过程中面临的不确定性和相关性问题,本文提出一种基于决策与实验室评估的模糊层次分析方法来确定风险因素重要度。考虑到风险评估中面临的模糊性和随机性问题,采用基于云模型的模糊综合评价法量化船舶冰困风险。研究结果表明:人为失误和船舶故障是导致船舶发生冰困的主要因素,海冰厚度和海冰密集度等环境因素是事故发生的重要条件;通航期北极冰区船舶冰困风险等级为中等,风险可接受。Aiming at the uncertainty and correlation problems in the risk factor identification process,this paper proposes a fuzzy analytic hierarchy approach based on the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory to determine the importance of risk factors.Considering the fuzziness and randomness in risk assessment,a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on the cloud model is used to quantify the risk of ships getting stuck.The results show that human error and ship failure are the main factors leading to the occurrence of ships stuck in ice.Moreover,environmental factors,such as sea ice thickness and sea ice concentration,are important conditions in the occurrence of an accident.The risk level of ships stuck in ice in the Arctic area during the navigation period is medium,and the risk is acceptable.

关 键 词：北极冰区 船舶冰困 风险评估 模糊集合 层次分析法 决策与实验室评估法 云模型 风险等级 

分 类 号：U698.6[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]