高油价下全球石油市场新特点和石油贸易新趋势  

New characteristics of global oil market and new trends of oil trade under high oil prices

作　　者：王佩[1] 任娜 蔡艺 李艾洁 WANG Pei;REN Na;CAI Yi;LI Aijie(China International United Petroleum&Chemicals Co.,Ltd.)

机构地区：[1]中国国际石油化工联合有限责任公司

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2022年第6期35-44,共10页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：进入2022年以来,在俄乌冲突升级、全球需求旺盛、库存低位运行等多重因素的影响下,国际油价时隔8年再度突破100美元/桶大关。与2008年、2011-2014年的高油价相比,本轮高油价伴随着全球能源大转型。全球石油市场呈现高油价、高贴水、高毛利、高需求、低库存、低供应、强结构的“四高两低一强”特征。与此同时,国际石油贸易格局深刻调整,原油贸易流向发生重要变化,同类资源竞争加剧,出口国定价权和话语权显著增强,进口国成本大幅抬升。中国已经是全球最大的原油进口国,建议中国在高油价下保持战略定力,持续推进国内增储上产,牢牢端稳能源饭碗;发挥消费市场潜力,持续增强贸易能力;完善战略石油储备轮换机制,尝试开展市场化操作;加快可再生能源发展,推动石油行业绿色低碳转型。Oil price has climbed to more than$100/barrel again after 2014 due to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine,the increasing global oil demand,and the low global oil inventories since 2022.Compared with the high oil prices in 2008 and 2011-2014,this round of high oil prices is accompanied by a global energy transformation.The global oil market is characterized by“Four highs,Two lows and One strong”this time,which means high oil price,high premium,high refining margin,and high demand,low inventory,low supply,and strong structure.Meanwhile,the global oil trade pattern has been profoundly adjusted,which is reflected by the major changes in crude oil flow,intensifying competition for similar oil resources,significantly increasing the status of exporting countries and substantially rising costs of importing countries.As the world’s largest oil importer,China should maintain its strategic focus facing high oil prices by continuing to promote domestic reserves,increase production and enhance trading capacity to ensure oil supply,improving and optimizing the strategic petroleum reserve rotation mechanism and carrying out market-oriented operations,and accelerate the development of renewable energy as well as drive the green and low-carbon transformation.

关 键 词：高油价 石油市场 俄乌冲突 供需 战略石油储备 能源转型 国际贸易 

分 类 号：F416.22[经济管理—产业经济] F746