安徽省物流业与对外贸易关系的实证研究  

An empirical study on relationship between logistics industry and foreign trade in Anhui Province

作　　者：李云 桂海霞[1] LI Yun;GUI Hai-xia(School of Economics and Management,Anhui University of Science And Technology,Huainan 232001,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学经济与管理学院,安徽淮南232001

出　　处：《哈尔滨商业大学学报（自然科学版）》2022年第4期492-498,共7页Journal of Harbin University of Commerce：Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目:“基于agent偏好和资源约束的重叠联盟机制研究”(项目编号:61703005);国家自然科学基金项目:基于采选充一体化的煤矿生产物流系统优化理论及建模研究(51874003).

摘　　要：长三角是我国物流业与对外贸易经济发展的核心地区之一,安徽省作为长三角四省市之一,在物流与对外贸易发展中与江浙沪地区存在差异.选取2001~2019年安徽省货物周转量、物流网络里程与进出口总额,通过Eviews统计软件建立VAR模型,研究安徽省物流业发展与对外贸易的关系.结果显示,安徽省物流业发展与对外贸易增长之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系,物流网络里程和货物周转量对进出口总额的贡献率一直保持着持续增加的状态,并且物流网络里程的冲击对进出口总额的贡献率要比货物周转量的贡献率要大.The Yangtze River Delta was one of the core areas of China′s logistics and foreign trade economic development.Anhui Province,as one of the four provinces in the Yangtze River Delta,was different from Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Shanghai in the development of logistics and foreign trade.In order to study the relationship between the development of logistics industry and foreign trade in Anhui Province,this paper selected the freight turnover,logistics network mileage and total import and export volume of Anhui Province from 2001 to 2019,and established VAR model through Eviews statistical software.The results showed that there was a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the development of logistics industry and the growth of foreign trade in Anhui Province.The contribution rate of logistics network mileage and goods turnover to the total import and export volume had been continuously increasing,and the contribution rate of logistics network mileage to the total import and export volume was greater than that of goods turnover.

关 键 词：区域物流 对外贸易 VAR模型 格兰杰因果检验 协整检验 实证研究 

分 类 号：F259.27[经济管理—国民经济]