地缘风险、不确定性与深化RCEP贸易合作的中国策略  

Geopolitical Risk,Uncertainty and China's Strategy in Deepening RCEP Trade Cooperation

作　　者：张威[1] 李丹 卫平东[3] ZHANG Wei;LI Dan;WEI Pingdong(Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation;Liaoning University)

机构地区：[1]商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院 [2]辽宁大学金融与贸易学院 [3]商务部国际贸易经济合作研究院教育合作办公室

出　　处：《国际贸易》2022年第7期63-71,共9页Intertrade

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“全球价值链数字化对中国制造业高质量发展的影响机制与推进策略研究”(21BJL070);辽宁经济社会发展课题“‘十四五’时期辽宁打造向北开放窗口的新切入点问题研究”、辽宁大学亚洲研究中心课题“新时期地缘风险与东北亚区域经济合作”(Y202110)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)生效后,深度挖掘区域合作潜力、全面深化经贸关系、拓展合作共赢空间成为RCEP建设的重要目标。RCEP区域是地缘风险较为典型的地区,其区域经济合作的实现与地缘风险变化息息相关。因此,稳定地缘风险对深化RCEP区域贸易合作具有重要意义。文章首先构建了地缘风险测算指数,测度了2001年到2020年间RCEP区域地缘风险的月度变化情况,分析了区域地缘风险的内部特征。在此基础上,通过机制分析明确了地缘风险通过不确定性影响区域贸易合作的路径,并考察了地缘风险与RCEP区域贸易合作的联动变化,以及不确定性机制在其中的显性表现。结合区域地缘风险与贸易合作的动态变化,明确了RCEP区域贸易合作的动态特征。最后,从中国的角度提出了稳定地缘风险、深化RCEP区域贸易合作的对策建议。After Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)came into effect,the aims of RCEP construction are to explore the potentials of economic cooperation in depth,to deepen trade and economic relationship overall,and to extend mutually beneficial cooperation.As a typical geopolitical region in the world,the realization of regional economic cooperation of RCEP is closely related to the changes of geopolitical risk.Thus,the stabilizing of geopolitical risk is of great importantance to the deepening of RCEP regional trade cooperation.This paper firstly constructs the geopolitical risk index,and calculates the monthly geopolitical risk index from 2001 to 2020 to analyze the inner characteristics of regional geopolitical risk.On the basis of these,this paper discusses about the mechanisms of geopolitical risk to regional trade cooperation through uncertainty,inspects the linked changes of geopolitical risk and RCEP regional trade cooperation,and analyzes the dominant manifest of uncertainty mechanism.Combined with the dynamic changes of regional geopolitical risk and trade cooperation,makes clear the dynamic characteristics of RCEP regional trade cooperation.Then it proposes suggestions from China's point to stabilize geopolitical risk and deepen RCEP regional trade cooperation.

关 键 词：地缘风险 RCEP区域贸易合作 不确定性 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易] F744[经济管理—产业经济] D822[政治法律—政治学]