土地约谈抑制地方政府土地财政吗?--基于双重差分法的实证分析  

Does the Land Regulatory Talks Restrain the Local Government’s Land Finance?An Empirical Analysis Based on Multi-period Difference-in-Difference Model

作　　者：刘佳[1] 彭佳 LIU Jia;PENG Jia(College of Law and Public Administration,Shaanxi Normal University,Xi’an 710119,China)

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学政法与公共管理学院,陕西西安710119

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2022年第7期34-42,共9页China Land Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“土地督察制度对地方政府土地财政的影响机制及优化策略”(20BGL233)。

摘　　要：研究目的:探究土地约谈是否有效抑制地方政府土地财政。研究方法:基于2004—2016年中国281个地级市面板数据,采用多期双重差分法实证分析土地约谈对地方政府土地财政的长短期影响效应。研究结果:(1)土地约谈对土地财政绝对规模没有影响,但对土地财政相对增速具有显著抑制作用,能有效缓解土地财政不断扩张;(2)土地约谈政策效力仅能维持两年,难以起到长期持续的抑制作用;(3)土地约谈在中部地区和经济水平较低城市具有显著约束作用,而对东西部地区及经济水平较高城市没有影响。研究结论:建议深化土地约谈制度,强化问责刚性约束;提升信息公开程度,搭建多渠道监管平台;实施差异化约谈,精准土地约谈效果。The purpose of this study is to investigate the effectiveness of land regulatory talks on restraining land finance of the local government.The research method of multi-period difference-in-difference model is adopted to analyze its short-and long-term impacts,based on the panel data of 281 prefecture-level cities in China from 2004 to 2016.The results show that:(1)land regulatory talks have a significant dampening effect on the relative growth rate of land finance,but make no difference to its absolute size;(2)the effect of the policy only lasts for two years and can hardly sustain;(3)land regulatory talks has a remarkable restraining effect on the central region and the economically underdeveloped cities in China,but has no influence on the eastern and western regions as well as the developed cities.In conclusion,it is recommended to further strengthen the admonition system and the rigid constraints on land accountability,improve information transparency and build a multi-channel monitoring platform,and adopt city-specific interview modes to make such talks more effective.

关 键 词：土地约谈 土地财政 政策效果 双重差分法 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]