中国高技术产品对东盟出口增长的特征分析——基于三元边际的视角  

Analysis of the Growth Characteristics of China’s High-tech Product Exports——Based on a Ternary Marginal Perspective

作　　者：金缀桥[1] 杨逢珉[2] 刘蕴逸 Jin Zhuiqiao;Yang Fengmin;Liu Yunyi

机构地区：[1]上海杉达学院商学院 [2]华东理工大学商学院

出　　处：《海关与经贸研究》2022年第3期106-121,共16页Journal of Customs and Trade

基　　金：国家社科基金面上项目“中美贸易摩擦背景下中国先进制造业价值链跃迁机理、实现路径与保障策略研究”(项目编号:19BJY099);上海市哲学社会科学规划一般课题“知识产权保护对出口扩展边际影响的研究——以‘一带一路’合作框架下高技术产品为视角”(项目编号:2019BJB014);第六批上海市属高校应用型本科试点专业建设(项目编号:Z30011.18.006);上海杉达学院校级课程建设项目(项目编号:PX-522140)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：高技术产品具有高附加值、高利润、关联效应强等特点,其出口受全球经济衰退的影响较小。在“一带一路”和RCEP框架下,优化中国对东盟各成员国高技术产品的出口结构,是推动我国和东盟贸易长期合作的重要路径。本文依托UN Comtrade数据库的出口数据,利用三元边际框架分解中国高技术产品对东盟各成员国出口的扩展边际、数量边际和价格边际,在对三元边际动态演进分析的基础上,结合非参数S-W检验和动态演进贡献度分析,探究了高技术产品对东盟各成员国出口增长的动力来源,并考察了CAFTA成立前后,三元边际对出口增长的贡献程度。结果表明,我国高技术产品对多数东盟国家的出口受到种类、价格和数量的共同驱动。特别是自2010年CAFTA正式成立以来,扩展边际和数量边际的增加,在对柬埔寨、老挝、马来西亚、缅甸、菲律宾和越南的出口增长中起到了关键作用,加强了出口的韧性。因此,我国应根据不同市场的特性有针对性地调整出口结构,加强技术创新,注重化解产业同质性竞争问题,依托“一带一路”和“RCEP”合作框架,优化与东盟各成员国的经贸合作,释放国家间的贸易潜力。High-tech products are characterized by high added value,high profit and strong correlation effect,and are less affected by recession.Under the framework of the“Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)”and RCEP,optimizing the export structure of high-tech products against ASEAN member countries is an important path to promote long-term cooperation between China and ASEAN trade.Relying on export data from the UN Comtrade database,this paper decomposes the expansion margin,quantity margin,and price margin of China’s high-tech product exports to each ASEAN member country using a ternary margin framework.Based on the analysis of the dynamic evolution of the ternary margins,through the nonparametric S-W test and dynamic evolutionary contribution analysis,this paper looks into the dynamic sources of export growth of high-tech products to each ASEAN member country and examines the degree of contribution of the ternary margins to export growth before and after the establishment of CAFTA.The results show that China’s exports of high-tech products to most ASEAN countries are driven by a combination of variety,price and quantity.In particular,since the formal establishment of CAFTA in 2010,the increase in the extensive margin and the quantity margin has played a critical role in the growth of exports to Cambodia,Laos,Malaysia,Myanmar,the Philippines and Vietnam,strengthening the resilience of exports.Therefore,China should adjust the export structure according to the characteristics of different markets and strengthen technological innovation to address the problem of industrial homogeneity competition,and promote economic and trade cooperation with ASEAN member countries based on the BRI and RCEP cooperation framework,so as to release the potential of trade between the cooperation countries.

关 键 词：高技术产品 三元边际 核密度估计 非参数S-W估计 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易] F276.44[经济管理—产业经济]