双循环新发展格局下中越林木产品贸易的影响因素与贸易潜力研究  

Analysis of Influencing Factors and Potential on Wooden Forest Products Trade between China and Vietnam under the New Development Pattern of“Dual Circulation”

作　　者：杨月元[1] 黄智铭[1] Yang Yueyuan;Huang Zhiming

机构地区：[1]广西民族师范学院

出　　处：《海关与经贸研究》2022年第2期101-110,共10页Journal of Customs and Trade

基　　金：广西民族师范学院2020年度校级科研一般项目“‘自贸区+综试区’叠加优势下广西跨境电商创新发展研究”(项目编号:2020YB041)的阶段性研究成果。

摘　　要：本文基于1997-2019年中越林木产品的贸易数据,介绍了中越林木产品贸易的规模、结构等基本情况,再运用引力模型,分析森林资源禀赋、汇率以及中国—东盟自由贸易区对中越林木产品贸易的影响方向及影响程度,并测算其贸易潜力。结果表明,中越两国经济规模、森林资源禀赋差异、中国—东盟自由贸易区的优惠政策安排对于中越林木产品贸易有着显著的积极影响,人口、金融危机对于中越林木产品贸易则产生负面影响;在贸易潜力方面,中越林木产品贸易属于潜力开拓型。因此,应建立中越跨国林木贸易合作机制;延长优化中越林木贸易产业链;推动建立中越两国林木贸易人民币结算机制,从而促进其高质量高水平发展。Based on the gravity model,according to the trade data of forest products sorted out from the UN trade during 1997 to 2019,this paper analyzes the influencing factors in terms of the wooden forest products trade between China and Vietnam,and measures the trade potential of wooden forest products of China and Vietnam.The results indicate that China’s total export-import volume of wooden forest products towards Vietnam presents a general increasing trend year by year,and the obvious trade deficit is the normal trend.In the trade structure,China and Vietnam mainly export deeply processed and high value-added labor-intensive forest products,import raw materials and primary processed resources-intensive forest products;Factors such as GDP,diversity of forest resources and CAFTA show a positive function between China and Vietnam’s wooden forest product trade.However,factors like population,global financial crisis embodies a negative function.Wooden forest products’trade between China and Vietnam has a trait of potential pioneer.Under the new development pattern of“dual circulation”,it is necessary to establish the cooperation consortium for China and Vietnam wooden forest products trade,construct a new form of the whole industrial chain,cultivate and expand new models and new business forms,and promote the establishment of RMB settlement mechanism,so as to promote its high-quality and high-level development.

关 键 词：中越贸易 林木产品贸易 引力模型 贸易潜力 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752.7F753.33