我国地方政府债务发展中的风险及化解建议  

The Risck of China’s Local Government Debt Development and Suggested Resolutions

作　　者：“中国地方政府与融资平台债务分析”课题组 闫衍 Research Group of“Analysis of China’s Local Government and Financing Platform Debt”(Research Institute,China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co.Ltd.,Beijing 100000,China)

机构地区：[1]中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司研究院,北京100000 [2]中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司 [3]中国人民大学经济研究所

出　　处：《金融理论探索》2022年第4期3-15,共13页Exploration of Financial Theory

基　　金：中诚信国际信用评级有限责任公司2021年度重点课题“中国地方政府与融资平台债务分析”(zcxzdkt002)部分成果。

摘　　要：“十四五”时期作为我国开启全面建设社会主义现代化国家新征程的第一个五年,保持期间经济社会持续健康发展至关重要。防范地方政府债务风险依然是新形势下牢牢守住不发生系统性风险底线,是实现“十四五”规划“防范经济和金融风险”目标的必然要求与重中之重。伴随着地方政府债务管理改革不断推进,我国地方政府债务风险总体可控,隐性债务增速放缓,风险有所缓释,但受新冠肺炎疫情冲击以及疫后修复不一影响,结构性和区域性风险有所加剧。基于此,本文认为地方债务风险化解需把控好短期风险控制与中长期体制改革的关系。短期看,地方政府“开前门、堵后门”的管理仍需坚定不移地推进;中长期看,仍需从根本上推进财税体制改革,并通过深层次机制改革强化地方政府治理能力建设。The“14th Five-Year Plan”period marks the first five-year period since China has embarked on a new journey in building a socialist modern country in every respect,it is of paramount importance to maintain healthy and sustainable economic and social development.Preventing local government debt risks is still the bottom line of ensuring that no systemic risk occur under the new situation and the inevitable requirement and the most important priority of realizing the goal of“preventing economic and financial risks”in the“14th Five-Year Plan”period.Along with the continuous progress of local government debt management reforms,local government debt risks in China are generally controllable,and the growth of implicit debt has slowed down and the risks have been mitigated.However,due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and the effect of the varying epidemic repairs,structural and regional risks have intensified.Thus,we believe that defusing local debt requires a balanced relationship between short-term risk control and mid and long-term system reforms.From the perspective of short-term,the management of“opening the front door and blocking the back door”of the local government still needs to be unswervingly promoted.From the mid and long-term side,it is still necessary to fundamentally advance the fiscal and taxation system reform and strengthen the governance capabilities of local governments through deepening mechanism reforms and etc.

关 键 词：地方政府债务 隐性债务 系统性风险 债务率 地方政府治理 

分 类 号：F810.5[经济管理—财政学]