基于空间集散效应的中国城市空间扩张驱动机制——以中国273个城市为例  

Research on the Driving Mechanism of China′s Urban Spatial Expansion Based on the Spatial Aggregation—Spread Effects

作　　者：刘奎 王健 康翔[1] 刘婧鸣 杜凯 LIU Kui;WANG Jian;KANG Xiang;LIU Jingming;DU Kai

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学公共政策与管理学院,陕西西安710049 [2]中国土地政策与法律研究中心,北京100193 [3]中国农业大学土地科学与技术学院,北京100193 [4]三亚中国农业大学研究院,海南三亚572025 [5]农业农村部管理干部学院,北京102208

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2022年第6期15-24,F0003,共11页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(18CJL041);三亚崖州湾科技城管理局资助项目。

摘　　要：基于2003—2017年中国273个城市面板数据,分析中国城市空间扩张特征,并运用固定效应模型,从理论分析和实证检验两个方面探讨空间集散效应的城市空间扩张驱动机制。研究发现,期间中国城市空间呈现出总体规模扩张明显、扩张速率逐渐放缓、省际差异逐步缩小的特征;从全国尺度来看,聚集经济和拥挤效应显著推动城市空间扩张,且大部分城市逐渐呈现出离心郊区化的发展趋势;从区域尺度来看,空间集散效应均对东中西部城市空间产生正向推动作用,但中部城市聚集经济并不显著;从城市行政级别来看,城市聚集经济约为拥挤效应的三分之一。新型城镇化应当构建基于内生经济动力的城市发展模式,聚焦城市群耦合联动的协同发展,推动土地要素市场化配置体系建设,实现城市空间布局优化。Based on the panel data of 273 cities in China from 2003 to 2017,this paper analyzes the characteristics of urban spatial expansion in China.Then,it discusses the driving mechanism of urban spatial expansion based on the spatial aggregation-spread effects from two aspects:theoretical analysis and empirical testing.The results show that,first,from 2003 to 2017,China′s urban space showed the characteristics of overall expansion,a gradual slowdown in expansion rate,and a gradual reduction in inter-provincial differences.Second,from a nationwide perspective,the agglomeration economy and the crowding effects have significantly promoted the expansion of urban spatial.Most cities are gradually showing the development trend of centrifugal suburbanization.Third,from a regional perspective,the spatial aggregation-spread effects have the positive effects on urban spatial of the eastern,central and western regions.However,the urban of central regions agglomeration economy is not significant.Fourthly,From the perspective of administrative levels,the agglomeration economy is about 1/3 of the crowding effects.New urbanization should build an urban development model based on endogenous economic power,focus on the synergistic development of coupling and linkage of urban clusters,promote the construction of a market-based allocation system for land elements,and achieve optimization of urban spatial layout.

关 键 词：土地经济 空间集散效应 城市空间扩张 聚集经济 拥挤效应 面板固定效应模型 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]