超大城市非户籍人口定居落户意愿及影响因素  

Settlement Intention and Determinants of the Non-registered Population in Megacities

作　　者：林宇敏 张莉[1,2] LIN Yumin;ZHANG Li

机构地区：[1]中国城市规划设计研究院,北京100044 [2]中规院(北京)规划设计有限公司/自然资源部国土空间规划与开发保护重点实验室,北京100044

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2022年第6期117-124,共8页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学重大基金项目(18ZDA082);住房和城乡建设部2021科技项目(2021-K-004)。

摘　　要：利用2017年全国流动人口卫生计生动态监测调查数据,以北京市和成都市为例,运用二元逻辑回归模型对超大城市的非户籍人口定居落户意愿及影响因素展开研究。研究发现:(1)就业机会,就业质量和医疗保障是超大城市非户籍人口定居落户意愿的普遍性影响因素,更高的受教育程度、更丰富的流动经历和更完整的家庭结构能够促进定居落户,流出地的宅基地资产则会阻碍定居落户;(2)北京非户籍人口的定居决策更容易受到经济要素的影响,而成都非户籍人口定居决策更容易受到非经济要素影响;(3)定居决策更注重流入地给个人发展提供的条件以及与个人能力的匹配;而落户决策往往更加谨慎,考虑因素从个人利益转变为家庭利益,从短期效益转变为长期效益,流出地的推力作用也更加明显。最后据此提出市民化政策建议。Based on the China Migrants Dynamic Survey in 2017,this paper used logistic regression model to study the settlement intention and determinants of non-registered population in Beijing and Chengdu.The conclusions are following:(1)Working condition and medical insurance are the common factors of the settlement intention of non-registered population in megacities.Non-registered population with higher education,more migration experience and more strong family structure are more likely to settle while land assets in the origins cities will impede the settlement.(2)The decisions to settle are impacted mainly by economic factors for non-registered population in Beijing.In contrast,the non-economic factors are more significant for non-registered population in Chengdu.(3)Residential settlement decisions emphasize the match of individual ability and development opportunities while the decision of registered settlement is more prudent,considering family benefit rather than individual benefit,long-term benefit than short-term benefit and focusing more on the push effect of origin cities.

关 键 词：定居意愿 落户意愿 二元逻辑回归模型 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]