全球贸易摩擦对我国进出口的影响研究——来自GTA国家-产品层面的证据  

The Impacts of Global Trade Friction on China’s Import and Export:Evidence of Global Trade Alert at Country-Product Level

作　　者：吕建兴 张少华[1] 李明月 Lv Jianxing;Zhang Shaohua;Li Mingyue

机构地区：[1]广州大学经济与统计学院 [2]广州大学乡村振兴研究院产业研究中心

出　　处：《统计研究》2022年第7期56-72,共17页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目“中国自由贸易区中市场准入例外安排研究:基本事实、决定因素及对进口的影响”(71903045);国家自然科学基金面上项目“中国企业和城市规模分布异化的政策根源、形成机制与效率评估”(72073038)。

摘　　要：我国是世界上最大的贸易国,同时也处于全球供应链和价值链的关键环节,那么日趋激烈的全球贸易摩擦对我国的国际贸易产生了怎样的冲击?本文基于全球贸易预警数据库(Global Trade Alert,GTA),构建2005—2018年贸易摩擦发起国-承受国-产品-时间维度的面板数据,利用泊松伪极大似然(PPML)估计技术实证分析全球贸易摩擦对我国进出口的直接效应和第三国效应。研究发现:当前全球贸易摩擦的目标对象国已经从我国转移到多个目标国,而且主要围绕中低端产品和关税、进口控制措施以及边境后措施等方面。我国因其独特的大国优势和产业优势,在全球贸易体系的供给侧和需求侧均发挥了重要作用,主要表现在,全球贸易摩擦总体导致我国出口增长19.43%,进口增长6.08%;而其他国家间的贸易摩擦对我国出口的促进作用主要体现在南北间和南南间的贸易摩擦。虽然贸易摩擦导致我国与发起国和承受国的贸易有显著促进作用,但是呈现不对称效应;同时,与进口限制措施显著促进我国与承受国、发起国的贸易不同,出口限制措施显著抑制我国从承受国的进口和对发起国的出口,而促进我国从发起国的进口。本文的研究发现为全面理解全球贸易摩擦的影响以及检验我国在全球经济贸易中的地位提供了科学依据。As the world’s largest trading country and a key link in the global supply chain and global value chain, how does the increasingly fierce global trade frictions affect China’s international trade? Based on the Global Trade Alert Database(GTA), this paper constructs panel data in the initiator-recipientproduct-time dimension from 2005 to 2018, and uses poisson pseudo maximum likelihood(PPML) method to analyze the direct effect and third-country effect of global trade frictions on China’s import and export.The results show that: Nowadays, the target countries of global trade frictions have shifted from China to multiple countries, and are mainly centered around low-and mid-range products and tariffs, import control measures, and behind-the-border measures. China has played an important role in both the supply side and the demand side of the global trade system because of its unique big country advantages and industrial advantages. Specifically, global trade frictions leads to China’s export growth of 19.43% and import growth of 6.08%. Moreover, the trade frictions between other countries promote China’s exports mainly in the trade frictions between North and South and between South and South. Although the trade frictions between China and the initiator and recipient countries has a significant effect in promoting trade, it presents an asymmetric effect. At the same time, unlike import restrictions that significantly promote China’s trade with recipient countries and initiator countries, export restrictions significantly inhibit China’s imports from recipient countries and exports to initiator countries, and promote China’s imports from initiator countries. The findings of this paper provide a scientific basis for a comprehensive understanding of the impact of global trade frictions and testing China’s position in global economy and trade.

关 键 词：全球贸易摩擦 贸易转移效应 贸易偏转效应 第三国效应 

分 类 号：F741.2[经济管理—国际贸易]