基于Wells-Riley模型的公交车辆内部COVID-19传播及防控研究  

Study on Spread and Prevention of COVID-19 inside Buses Based on Wells-Riley Model

作　　者：陈国强 刘澜[1,2] 陈玉婷 毛剑楠 晏启鹏[1] CHEN Guo-qiang;LIU Lan;CHEN Yu-ting;MAO Jian-nan;YAN Qi-peng(School of Transportation and Logistics,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu Sichuan 610031,China;National United Engineering Laboratory of Integrated and Intelligent Transportation,Southwest Jiaotong University,Chengdu Sichuan 610031,China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都610031 [2]西南交通大学综合交通运输智能化国家地方联合工程试验室,四川成都610031

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2022年第6期144-152,共9页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61873216);四川省科技厅项目(2020YFS0586);四川省科技计划项目(2020YFSY0020)。

摘　　要：为研究感染者从出发地到目的地期间乘坐公交车辆造成的病毒感染,以及COVID-19病毒在公交车辆内部的传播机制,考虑病毒扩散的特点,建立了多智能体病毒传播模型。首先,根据公交车辆的尺寸初始化人群分布,设置了乘客移动规则。其次,基于Wells-Riley理论,考虑初始感染人数、病毒产生率、飞沫传输距离、车辆运行时间、通风量、口罩佩戴和疫苗接种等影响因素,建立了适用于公交车辆内的多智能体病毒传播模型。第三,根据两起真实的因搭乘公交车辆而导致的聚集性感染事件,对模型进行了参数标定与验证,结果显示病毒产生率大概在150 quanta/h时,仿真结果与实际情况吻合。最后,根据模型分析了口罩佩戴比例、疫苗接种比例、通风量、载客人数4种人为可控的影响因素和不可控的病毒产生率对病毒扩散速度的影响。结果表明:每小时完成1次车厢消毒能有效抑制病毒扩散;如果条件不允许,尽量保证车辆的消毒时间间隔不超过3 h;对于运行时间较短的公交车辆,通过增加乘客戴口罩的比例可以有效降低感染人数;对于运行时间较长的公交车辆,通过增加疫苗接种率、降低载客人数能有效抑制病毒传播;提高通风量对防止病毒扩散有一定的效果,但抑制效果会随时间增加而降低;当车辆运行时间高于4 h,尽管病毒产生率很低,但感染风险将快速增加,会出现大量乘客感染病毒。In order to study the virus infection caused by the infected persons by transit vehicles from departure place to destination and the transmission mechanism of the COVID-19 virus inside public buses, considering the characteristics of virus transmission, a multi-agent virus transmission model is established. First, the crowd distribution is initialized according to the size of bus, and passenger movement rules are set. Second, based on the Wells-Riley theory, considering the initial number of infections, virus generation rate, droplet transmission distance, vehicle driving time, ventilation volume, mask-wearing and vaccination, etc.,a multi-agent virus transmission model suitable for transit vehicles is established. Third, the model parameters are determined and verified based on 2 actual incidents of cluster infection caused by taking transit vehicles, showing that when the virus generation rate is about 150 quanta/h, the simulation result is consistent with the actual situation. Finally, according to the model, the influences of 4 kinds of man-made controllable influencing factors including mask wearing ratio, vaccination ratio, ventilation volume and number of carried passengers and the uncontrollable virus production rate on the virus spread speed are analyzed. The result shows that(1) completing compartment disinfection once an hour can effectively inhibit the virus spread;(2) if conditions do not permit, try to ensure that the disinfection interval of vehicles does not exceed 3 hours;(3) for the shorter-hour driving transit vehicles, the number of infected people can be effectively reduced by increasing the mask wearing ratio of passengers to reduce the number of infections;(4) for the long-hour driving transit vehicles, increasing the vaccination ratio and reducing the number of passengers can effectively inhibit the virus spread;(5) increasing the ventilation volume has a certain effect on preventing the virus spread, but the suppression effect will decrease as time increase;(6) when vehicle driving for mo

关 键 词：城市交通 多智能体模型 Wells-Riley理论 新型冠状病毒肺炎肺炎 公交车辆 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]