1990—2019年启东市内分泌、营养和代谢性疾病死亡率趋势分析及去死因期望寿命预测  

An analysis of motality trend and prediction of life expectancy due to death for endocrine,,nutritional and metabolic diseases in qidong from 1990 to 2019

作　　者：徐源佑 张永辉[1,2] 丁璐璐[1,2] 陈永胜[1,2] 王军 陈建国[1,2] 朱健 XU Yuan-you;ZHANG Yong-hui;DING Lu-lu;CHEN Yong-sheng;WANG Jun;CHEN Jian-guo;ZHU Jian(Qidong Liver Cancer Institute/Qidong People′s Hospital,Qidong City 226200,Jiangsu Province,China;Qidong Hospital Affiliated to Nantong University,Qidong City 226200,Jiangsu Province,China)

机构地区：[1]启东肝癌防治研究所/启东市人民医院,江苏启东226200 [2]南通大学附属启东医院,江苏启东226200

出　　处：《预防医学情报杂志》2022年第7期899-905,共7页Journal of Preventive Medicine Information

基　　金：南通市卫生健康委员会2020年科研立项课题(项目编号:QB2020025)。

摘　　要：目的研究分析1990—2019年江苏省启东市居民内分泌、营养和代谢性疾病死亡的变化趋势和期望寿命的影响,为制定卫生政策提供依据。方法根据1990—2019年启东市全死因监测资料及历年人口资料,对居民内分泌疾病死亡率及时间趋势进行分析,采用Joinpoint 4.7.0.0软件,计算指标包括粗死亡率(CR)、中国标化率(CASR)及年度变化百分比(APC)等,并计算各年去死因期望寿命,使用SAS 9.2对期望寿命进行预测。结果1990—2019年启东市居民内分泌、营养和代谢性疾病的CR为15.36/10万,其中男性为12.93/10万,女性为17.74/10万。CASR为7.69/10万,其中男性为6.62/10万,女性为8.79/10万。趋势分析显示,CR的APC为8.01%,其中男性为8.59%,女性为7.69%,CASR的APC为4.22%,其中男性为4.67%,女性为4.02%,,差异有统计学意义(P均<0.05)。启东市居民期望寿命从1990年的73.95岁上升至2019年的82.91岁(APC=0.38%,P<0.001),去内分泌、营养和代谢性疾病期望寿命由1990年的74.06岁上升至2019年的83.39岁(APC=0.39%,P<0.001),内分泌、营养和代谢性疾病带来的寿命损失逐年增加。预测模型显示在今后的5年内期望寿命逐年升高,内分泌、营养和代谢性疾病带来的寿命损失也随之升高。结论30年来启东市居民内分泌、营养和代谢性疾病死亡率逐年上升且趋势明显,从趋势分析及预测结果看,女性的内分泌、营养和代谢性疾病死亡率和寿命损失均高于男性,应给予更多干预。Objective Research and analysis of the influence of the change trend and the dynamic Life of residents'introduction,nutrition and metabolic diseases in Jiangsu province in 1990 to 2019,to provide a basis for formulating health policies.Methods According to the analyzed monitoring information of all causes of death in Qidong City 1990 to 2019 and population data over the years,the mortality rate and time trend of residents were analyzed.JoinPoint 4.7.0.0 software were used,the calculation indicators included crude mortality(CR),China standardization Rate(CASR)and annual change percentage(APC),etc.And the life expectancy of the years to death were calculated,SAS9.2 were used to predict the expected life.Results The CR of residents,nutrition and metabolic diseases from 1990 to 2019 were 15.36/105 in Qidong city,of which 12.93/105 were men,17.74/105.were women.CASR was 7.69/105,of which male were 6.62/105,8.79/105 were women.Trend analysis showed that CR′s APC was 8.01%,of which male was 8.59%,with 7.69%of women.The APC of CASR was 4.22%,of which male was 4.67%,and 4.02%of female,(P<0.05),the difference was statistically significance.Life expectancy of residents of Qidong city rose from 73.95 years in 1990 to 82.91 years old in 2019(APC=0.38%,P<0.01),endocrine,nutrition and metabolic disease expectancy,due to 74.06 years old in 1990 to 83.39 years old(APC=0.39%,P<0.01),years of life lost from endocrine,nutrition and metabolic diseases had increased year by year.The prediction model showed an increase in life expectancy over the next five years,with an increase in life loss due to endocrine,nutritional and metabolic diseases.Conclusions The trend of mortality rate of endocrine,nutrition and metabolic diseases in Qidong city has been increased obviously in the past 30 years.From the trend analysis and forecasting results,women′s endocrine,nutrients and metabolic disease mortality and life losses are higher than that of men,and more intervention should be given to them.

关 键 词：死亡率 期望寿命 趋势分析 趋势预测 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]