基于系统动力学的发电容量充裕度机制分析  

Analysis on Generation Capacity Adequacy Mechanism Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：刘泽扬 荆朝霞[1] 孙启星 喻芸 尤培培 李成仁 LIU Zeyang;JING Zhaoxia;SUN Qixing;YU Yun;YOU Peipei;LI Chengren(School of Electric Power Engineering,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510640,China;State Grid Energy Research Institute Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 102209,China;Digital Grid Research Institute,China Southern Power Grid,Guangzhou 510030,China)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学电力学院,广东省广州市510640 [2]国网能源研究院有限公司,北京市102209 [3]南方电网数字电网研究院有限公司,广东省广州市510030

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2022年第14期109-118,共10页Automation of Electric Power Systems

基　　金：国家电网公司总部科技项目(SGFJJY00JJJS2000067)。

摘　　要：为了解决能源转型过程中电力系统潜在装机容量不足的问题,国外电力市场建立了发电容量充裕度机制,其中以稀缺定价机制、容量补偿机制和容量市场机制最为典型。研究不同机制的效果对于中国充裕度机制的选择具有重要意义。基于美国得克萨斯州的稀缺定价机制、智利的容量补偿机制、美国PJM及英国容量市场的机制,设计构建了适合长期仿真的发电容量演化系统动力学模型。通过净现值评估进行容量退役与投资决策,综合考虑了负荷增长预测的不确定性和市场主体的风险规避。算例仿真对比了3种机制对容量充裕度、机组净收益、社会福利的影响,并进行了风险规避系数的敏感性分析,最后基于数值仿真结果对中国电力市场机制设计提出了建议。To solve the potential shortage problem of the installed capacity of the power system in the process of the energy transition, foreign electricity markets have established generation capacity adequacy mechanisms, among which the scarcity pricing mechanism, the capacity remuneration mechanism and the capacity market mechanism are the most typical. Studying the effects of different mechanisms is of great significance for the selection of China’s capacity mechanism. Based on the mechanism design of scarcity pricing in Texas, U. S., capacity remuneration in Chile, capacity market in PJM, U. S. and U. K., a system dynamics model of power generation capacity expansion suitable for long-term simulation is constructed. Capacity decommissioning and investment decisions are made through net present value assessment, taking into account the uncertainty of load growth forecasting and the risk aversion of market entities. A numerical example is simulated to compare the impact of the three mechanisms on resource adequacy, generation net income, and social welfare, and a sensitivity analysis of the risk aversion coefficient is carried out. Finally, based on the numerical simulation results, some suggestions are given for the mechanism design of the electricity market of China.

关 键 词：电力市场 发电容量充裕度机制 稀缺定价 容量补偿 容量市场 系统动力学 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]