“丝绸之路经济带”沿线中国自贸区建设的经济产业效应——对九大重点行业的GTAP模拟  

The Economic and Industrial Effects of China’s FTA Construction along the Silk Road Economic Belt——Based on GTAP Simulation for Nine Key Industries

作　　者：赵亮[1,2] ZHAO Liang(School of Economics and Trade,Nanchang Institute of Technology,Nanchang 330099,China;School of International Economics and Trade,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics,Nanchang 330013,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌工程学院经济贸易学院,江西南昌330099 [2]江西财经大学国际经贸学院

出　　处：《经济体制改革》2022年第4期104-111,共8页Reform of Economic System

基　　金：江西省社会科学基金一般项目“四维视阈下自贸试验区影响产业结构升级的效应探究”(20JL03);中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目“四维视域下贸易高质量发展的‘自贸试验区驱动’探究”(2021M691355);江西省高校人文社会科学研究项目“自由贸易区驱动贸易高质量发展的动力机制与多元效应研究”(JJ21209)。

摘　　要：“一带一路”倡议下加快沿线自贸区建设是贯通外循环、加强产业国际合作的重要途径。选取九大重点行业,采用GTAP模拟“丝绸之路经济带”沿线自贸区建设的经济产业效应,研究发现:从经济效应来看,对中国GDP、福利、贸易条件的驱动会随着自由化,尤其是便利化的水平提高而显著提升,而同一情景下对各自贸区伙伴宏观经济的驱动影响异质性强;从产业效应来看,对中国而言无论何种情景整体都会提高各行业的出口总量,但对不同行业贸易平衡、附加值提升的驱动影响各异。沿线自贸区开放水平高会持续提升轻纺、钢铁、建材、电力四类行业的净出口及附加值,也会扩大其他五类行业的净进口且拉低其附加值。据此,应从开放水平、协同管理、企业整合、产业合作、提升附加值等方面促进“丝绸之路经济带”沿线的自贸区建设。Accelerating the construction of FTAs along the Belt and Road is an important way to link up the external circulation and enhance international industrial cooperation. This paper selects nine key industries and uses GTAP to simulate the economic and industrial effects of the construction of FTAs along the Silk Road Economic Belt. The results show that, as for the economic effects, the driving force on China’s GDP, welfare and terms of trade will increase significantly with the improvement of liberalization, especially facilitation, while the driving force on the macro-economy of each FTA partner is highly heterogeneous under the same scenario.As for the industrial effects, for China, the total export volume of all industries will be improved in any scenario, but the driving force on trade balance and value-added improvement of different industries are different. The higher the opening level of FTAs along the Silk Road Economic Belt, the net export and added value of the four industries of light textile, steel, building materials and power will continue to increase, and can expand the net import of the other five industries and reduce their added value. Finally, measures to optimize the construction of FTAs along the Silk Road Economic Belt are proposed from the aspects of openness level, collaborative management, enterprise integration, industrial cooperation and enhancing added value.

关 键 词：丝绸之路经济带 自贸区 重点行业 经济产业效应 

分 类 号：F741.2[经济管理—国际贸易]