财政空间与财政政策的周期选择——基于跨国面板数据的实证研究  

Fiscal Space and Cyclical Choice of Fiscal Policy——Empirical Research Based on Transnational Panel Data

作　　者：龙腾 罗美娟[1] TENG Long;MEI Juan-luo(School of Economics,Yunnan University,Kunming 650504,China)

机构地区：[1]云南大学经济学院,云南昆明650504

出　　处：《经济体制改革》2022年第4期169-177,共9页Reform of Economic System

基　　金：国家自然科学基金地区科学基金项目“新时代我国区域开放空间格局优化与战略支撑研究”(71861034);云南省教育厅科学研究基金项目“我国西部地区经济增长极钻石经济圈构建探究”(2021JO763);云南省财税学科平台建设项目“政府间财政关系和地方财税政策”(C6176602)。

摘　　要：长期扩张性的财政政策将加大财政顺周期风险,适时选择相应的财政政策周期是研究财政可持续性的重要探索。基于1990~2019年72个国家的面板数据,分析财政空间对财政政策周期性的实证影响。研究发现:财政空间越小,财政政策的顺周期性就越强,且两者的负向关系会随着时间的推移而增加;而扩张财政空间能使国家在经济衰退期有能力实施逆周期财政政策,在发展中国家中这种影响作用尤为明显。为了规避财政顺周期风险,现阶段中国应加快构建结构性预算平衡准则,促进经济平稳期的财政盈余积累,扩大政府部门财政空间,构建可持续的逆周期财政调控体系。Long-term expansionary fiscal policy will increase the pro-cyclical risk of fiscal policy, timely selection of the corresponding fiscal policy cycle is an important exploration to study fiscal sustainability. Based on panel data from 72 countries from 1990 to 2019, the empirical impact of fiscal space on fiscal policy periodicity is analyzed. It is found that the smaller the fiscal space is, the stronger the pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy will be, and the negative relationship between them will increase with the passage of time. Expanding fiscal space can enable countries to implement counter-cyclical fiscal policies during economic downturns, especially in developing countries. In order to avoid pro-cyclical fiscal risks, China should accelerate the construction of structural budget balance criteria at the present stage, promote the accumulation of fiscal surplus in the stable economic period, expand the fiscal space of government departments, and build a sustainable counter-cyclical fiscal regulation system.

关 键 词：财政空间 财政周期 顺周期风险 

分 类 号：F810.2[经济管理—财政学]