规模经营对中国生猪生产波动的稳定效应研究——基于调节效应和门槛效应模型的双重检验  

Study on Stabilization Effect of Scale Management on Fluctuation of Hog Production in China:Double Test Based on Moderating Effect and Threshold Effect Models

作　　者：杨少华 王凯[1] YANG Shaohua;WANG Kai

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院,南京210095

出　　处：《农业经济问题》2022年第7期81-96,共16页Issues in Agricultural Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“猪肉产业链系统竞争力形成机制与影响因素的实证研究”(编号:71273136);江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(编号:PAPD);江苏省研究生科研与实践创新计划项目“乡村旅游产业链,PPP融资模式形成机理与提升路径研究”(编号:KYCX20_0613)。

摘　　要：生猪平稳生产至关重要,本文利用2001—2017年30个省份的省际面板数据,实证检验了规模经营对中国生猪生产波动的影响及作用。研究发现:第一,在控制其他因素影响的情况下,生猪经营规模对生猪生产波动具有显著的稳定效应,相对存栏量而言,影响中国生猪出栏量波动的因素更为复杂;第二,规模经营对生猪生产波动的稳定效应存在地区差异和大、中、小规模经营的结构差异;第三,市场风险在规模经营对生猪生产波动的稳定效应中起到调节作用,调节方向因市场波动风险和市场调控风险而异;第四,规模经营对生猪生产波动的稳定效应存在单一门槛效应,在规模化经营水平跨过门槛值后,稳定效应更加明显。It is important to maintain a stable hog production.Using the model of hog production and supply,and using province-level data,this study investigates the impact of scale management on hog production fluctuations during the period of 2001-2017 in China.The empirical results show that:(1) the scale management of hog have a significant stabilizing impact on the fluctuations of hog production when controlling other factors.Relative to the amount of pigs on hand,the factors that affect the fluctuation of the sales volume of pigs are more complex.(2) Stabilizing impact on the fluctuations of hog production change with region,and change with the scale of producer.(3) Stabilizing impact on the fluctuations of hog production is moderated by hog market risk.And the moderating effect varies with market fluctuation risk and market regulation risk.(4) There is a threshold for scale management,the stabilizing impact become more significant along with scale management over the threshold.

关 键 词：规模经营 生产波动 市场风险 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]