赐福效应还是诅咒效应:政府补贴对土地托管的影响  

Blessing or Curse Effect:The Impact of Government Subsidies on Agricultural Outsourcing

作　　者：余粮红 郑珊[1] 高强[1] YU Lianghong;ZHENG Shan;GAO Qiang

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学管理学院

出　　处：《中国农村观察》2022年第4期77-95,共19页China Rural Survey

基　　金：山东省社会科学规划研究项目“山东省新型城镇化与乡村振兴互动协调发展研究”(编号:21CGLJ42);山东省社会科学规划研究项目“农村土地流转创新路径研究”(编号:18CSJJ30);中央高校基本科研业务费专项“农企与农户利益联结对农户收入的影响研究”(编号:202161042)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：本文基于幼稚产业保护理论,利用农户调查数据实证检验政府补贴对土地托管的短期影响,并进一步构建演化博弈模型与数值仿真模型检验政府补贴对土地托管的长期影响。研究发现:首先,在短期内,政府补贴对土地托管产生赐福效应,表现为农户土地托管面积的扩大与托管服务内容的增加;从长期看,政府补贴对土地托管产生诅咒效应,表现为托管作业质量的降低与托管系统的解体。其次,异质性分析表明:政府补贴对不同农户土地托管面积的影响按照从大到小排序,依次为专业大户、小规模纯农户、兼业户;政府补贴对不同农户土地托管服务内容的影响按照从大到小排序,依次为小规模纯农户、兼业户、专业大户;政府补贴对不同农作物种植土地托管面积与托管服务内容的影响按照从大到小排序,依次为蔬菜种植、玉米种植、小麦种植。最后,进一步仿真分析表明:补贴对象的差异不会影响土地托管的演进方向与结果,但会影响农户土地托管行为的稳定速度和供销社的协调策略,补贴向农户倾斜更能推进土地托管。因此,应适度控制土地托管补贴额度,加快完善土地托管质量标准体系,优化配置土地托管补贴资金,合理选择土地托管补贴品种。Based on the infant industry protection theory,this paper empirically tests the short-term effects of government subsidies on agricultural outsourcing using farmer survey data,and further constructs an evolutionary game model and a numericalsimulation model to test the long-term effects of government subsidies.The findings are as follows.Firstly,in the short term,government subsidies have a blessing effect on agricultural outsourcing,which is manifested in the expansion of farmers'agricultural outsourcing area and the increase of service content.In the long term,government subsidies have a curse effect,which is manifested in the reduction of the quality of agricultural outsourcing operations and the disintegration of the agricultural outsourcing system.Secondly,the heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of government subsidies on the agricultural outsourcing area of different farmers is ranked from large to small,followed by professional large households,small-scale pure farmers,and part-time households.The influence of government subsidies on the number of agricultural outsourcing service content of different farmers is ranked from large to small,followed by small-scale pure farmers,part-time farmers,and large professional households.The influence of government subsidies on the outsourcing area and service content of different crop planting land is sorted from large to small,followed by vegetable planting,corn planting and wheat planting.Further simulation analysis shows that the difference of subsidy objects will not affect the evolution direction and results of agricultural outsourcing,but that will affect the stable speed of farmers’agricultural outsourcing behavior and the coordination strategy of supply and marketing cooperatives.The preference of subsidy objects to farmers can better promote agricultural outsourcing.Therefore,it would be necessary to appropriately control the amount of subsidies,speed up the improvement of the agricultural outsourcing quality standard system,optimize the allocation

关 键 词：托管补贴 土地托管 短期赐福效应 长期诅咒效应 演化博弈 

分 类 号：F321.1[经济管理—产业经济]