伊斯兰革命以来伊朗在中东地区秩序演变中的角色变化  

Iran’s Changing Roles in the Evolution of the Middle East Regional Order since the Islamic Revolution

作　　者：金良祥[1] Jin Liangxiang

机构地区：[1]上海国际问题研究院国际战略研究所

出　　处：《西亚非洲》2022年第4期139-154,160,共17页West Asia and Africa

摘　　要：伊朗作为一个民族国家,具有强烈的独立自主民族个性,并在伊斯兰革命后着力释放,成为中东地区秩序演变的重要影响因素。从伊斯兰革命到鲁哈尼任期结束,中东地区秩序经历了两极争夺、美国单极和美国单极弱化(地区大国崛起)等发展阶段,伊朗在地区秩序演变中的角色经历了从有限革命者(1979~1989年),到低调接受者(1989~2000年)和被动获益者(2001~2008年)的转换。以2009年美国总统奥巴马实施中东收缩战略为标志,美国在中东的单极主导地位逐渐弱化,中东地区进入秩序重塑期。伊朗积极参与地区秩序转型,不仅是对这一进程有一定影响的破局者之一,也是地区大国崛起局面的触发者之一,还是强化地区教缘政治的推动者之一。2021年,在地区大国崛起的新中东地区秩序之下,莱希当选伊朗总统。伊朗欲通过积极参与地区秩序建设而创造有利于国内经济发展的周边环境,遂奉行周边优先的政策,可能成为新的地区秩序的重要建设者,但固有的内外因素也会制约伊朗在地区事务中发挥预期作用。As a nation-state with very strong personality,Iran has played very important roles in the evolution of regional order.From the Islamic Revolution to the end of Rouhani’s rule,the Middle East regional order went through the bi-polar struggles,the American uni-polar and the weakened American uni-polar( the rise of regional powers) periods.The roles of Iran have changed from a limited revolutionary( 1979-1989) to low-profile recipient( 1989-2000),and passive beneficiary( 2001-2008) in different periods of time since its 1979 revolution.Barack Obama’s decision in 2009 to withdraw troops from Iraq and Afghanistan marked the beginning of the weakening of America’s uni-polar order in the region.The rising of regional powers and their competition for sphere of influence,as a result of America’s decline,has plunged the region into disorder.Iran not only played the role in undermining America’s dominance but also triggered the geopolitical competition among regional powers.Ebrahim Raisi,regarded as successor of the Supreme Leader,will likely initiate a new era focusing on economic development at home,and Iran under Raisi’s rule will hopefully play a constructive role in regional efforts to reshape regional order.However,internal and external factors will restrict Iran’s roles in regional affairs.

关 键 词：中东地区秩序 伊朗角色 有限革命者 低调接受者 被动获益者 积极改变者 积极参与者 

分 类 号：D815.4[政治法律—国际关系] D837.3[政治法律—政治学] D737.3[政治法律—外交学]