2016-2020年山东省布鲁氏菌病流行特征及空间聚集性分析  

Epidemiological characteristics and spatiotemporal distribution of brucellosis in Shandong, 2016-2020

作　　者：马秀君 李岩[2] 于晓琳 于建梅 李美佳 王在翔[1] 寇增强[2] Ma Xiujun;Li Yan;Yu Xiaolin;Yu Jianmei;Li Meijia;Wang Zaixiang;Kou Zengqiang(Weifang Medical University,Weifang 261053,Shandong,China;Shandong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jinan 250014,Shandong,China;Shandong First Medical University,Jinan 250117,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]潍坊医学院,山东潍坊261053 [2]山东省疾病预防控制中心,山东济南250014 [3]山东省第一医科大学,山东济南250117

出　　处：《疾病监测》2022年第6期777-781,共5页Disease Surveillance

基　　金：山东省医药卫生科技发展计划(No.2015WS0272,No.202012061389)。

摘　　要：目的 分析2016-2020年山东省布鲁氏菌病(布病)流行特征及空间聚集性,为布病的有效防控提供依据。方法 基于山东省疾病报告信息系统2016-2020年布病监测数据,运用ArcGIS 10.8软件采用全局和局部空间自相关分析方法对山东省2016-2020年布病疫情数据进行分析。结果 山东省2016-2020年共报告人布病14 621例,年均发病率为2.93/10万;其中男性10 438例,女性4 183例;发病年龄以40~59岁为主。全局空间自相关结果显示,2016-2020年山东省布病报告发病率全局Moran′s I指数分别为0.217、0.154、0.252、0.290和0.315(均为P<0.001),提示发病存在空间聚集性。局部空间自相关结果显示“高–高”聚集区主要集中在鲁北和鲁中地区,与高发病率地区较为一致。“低–低”聚集区则主要位于青岛、烟台、威海等东部沿海地区和鲁西的部分地区。结论 山东省2016-2020年布病发病率呈下降趋势,地区间布病发病率水平存在空间正相关和明显的空间聚集性,高聚集区主要分布在山东省中部和北部地区,需重点防控。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics and spatial clustering of brucellosis in Shandong province from 2016 to 2020, and provide evidence for effective prevention and control of brucellosis. Methods Based on the surveillance data of brucellosis in Shandong from 2016 to 2020, global and local spatial autocorrelation analysis methods were used to analyze the incidence data of brucellosis in Shandong from 2016 to 2020 by using software ArcGIS 10.8. Results A total of 14 621 cases of human brucellosis were reported in Shandong from 2016 to 2020, with an average annual incidence of293/100 000. There were 10 438 cases in men and 4 183 cases in women. The age of the cases was 40-59 years. The Moran’s I index of the reported incidence of brucellosis in Shandong from 2016 to 2020 were 0.217, 0.154, 0.252, 0.290 and 0.315,respectively(P<0.001), suggesting spatial clustering. The results of local spatial autocorrelation showed that the “high-high”clusters were mainly in the northern and central Shandong, consistent with the high incidence areas. Low-low cluster areas were mainly in Qingdao, Yantai, Weihai and other eastern coastal areas and part of western Shandong. Conclusion The incidence of brucellosis in Shandong showed a decreasing trend from 2016 to 2020. There was a positive spatial correlation and obvious spatial clustering of brucellosis incidence in different areas. The high clustering areas were mainly distributed in the central and northern Shandong, where the prevention and control of brucellosis should be strengthened.

关 键 词：布鲁氏菌病 流行病学特征 空间自相关 

分 类 号：R211[医药卫生—中医学] R516.7