蒙特卡罗法在地热资源评价中的应用  

Application of Monte Carlo method in geothermal resource assessment

作　　者：韩军 刘祜[1,2] 甄珍 朱鹏飞[1,2] Han Jun;Liu Hu;Zhen Zhen;Zhu Pengfei(CNNC Key Laboratory of Uranium Resources Exploration and Evaluation Technology,Beijing 100029,China;Beijing Research Institute of Uranium Geology,Beijing 100029,China)

机构地区：[1]中核集团铀资源勘查评价重点实验室,北京100029 [2]核工业北京地质研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《地质学刊》2022年第2期158-164,共7页Journal of Geology

基　　金：中国核工业地质科研项目“高效低成本勘查技术体系研究”(物D2110)。

摘　　要：通过印度尼西亚B地热田地质勘查和已有资料分析,参照中国地热行业勘查和资源评价相关规范,对比该地热田已有的资源评价结果;以热储法(体积法)为基本公式,运用蒙特卡罗(Monte Carlo)法进行预测,随机参数均为地热地质条件限定下的取值范围;最终以体积法估算结果作为评估资源量下限,获得待评价地热田的可发电量资源潜力,为该地热田的进一步开发提供可靠依据。相比传统方法,蒙特卡罗法更适用于地热勘查初级阶段的地热资源评价,具有预测范围合理、数据结果定量化、可提供概率分析置信区间等优点。Based on the geological exploration and existing data analysis of the B geothermal field in Indonesia,the existing resource evaluation results in the geothermal field are compared with the relevant specifications of geothermal exploration and resource evaluation in China.With the heat storage approach(volumetric approach)as the basic formula,Monte Carlo method was used to predict,and the random parameters were within the range of limited geothermal geological conditions.Finally,the volumetric estimation results were taken as the lower limit of the resource amount to obtain the energy generation potential of the target geothermal field,providing a reliable basis for the further development of the geothermal field.Compared with the traditional methods,Monte Carlo method is more suitable for the preliminary stage of geothermal exploration in the field of geothermal resource evaluation,and has the advantages of reasonable prediction range,quantitative data results,and available confidence interval of probability analysis.

关 键 词：蒙特卡罗模拟法 地热资源预测 热储法(体积法) 印尼B地热田 

分 类 号：P314.3[天文地球—固体地球物理学]