基于多维因子模型的网络群体性事件演化影响机制  

Influence Mechanism of Network Mass Incidents Evolution Based on Multidimensional Factor Model

作　　者：李金泽 张鹏 夏一雪 王娟 何巍 兰月新 Li Jinze;Zhang Peng;Xia Yixue;Wang Juan;He Wei;Lan Yuexin(China People's Police University,Langfang 065000)

机构地区：[1]中国人民警察大学,廊坊065000

出　　处：《情报杂志》2022年第8期102-111,共10页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学基金项目“‘一带一路’沿线国家涉华舆情态势感知体系与应对研究”(编号:20YJA860002);全国统计科学研究重点项目“基于舆情大数据的社会稳定风险建模与预警研究”(编号:2019LZ07);国家民委民族研究项目“新媒体时代涉民族因素网络舆情风险建模与治理研究”(编号:2020-GMD-023);河北省社会科学发展研究课题“重大突发事件网络舆论新生风险治理机制研究”(编号:20200403102);河北省高等学校人文社会科学研究项目“基于舆情大数据的群体性事件感知与应对策略研究”(编号:BJ2020210)。

摘　　要：[研究目的]随着互联网在社会中的影响力逐渐增大,面对网络群体性事件对社会生活的冲击,需准确把握事件性质,构建影响网络群体性事件演化的全定量型指标体系,旨在事件发生后指标数据的快速搜集,消除主观方面的不稳定性,并基于事件数据的分析结果,为政府制定应对措施提供依据。[研究方法]搜集和分析了2014—2021年发生在中国的510个重大网络群体性事件,构建影响事件演化的指标体系,假设出17个影响因子,4个效果因子,基于Mplus软件构建多维因子模型,分析各指标对网络群体性事件演化的影响方向和程度。[研究结论]根据模型验证及结果的分析,支持了指标假设的合理性,证明了“事件属性”“传播媒介”“网络热度”3个维度和17个影响因子指标对网络群体性事件演化起到较大的影响作用。[Research purpose]As the influence of Internet on society is gradually increasing,in the face of the impact of the network mass incidents on social life,accurately grasping the nature of the event and building all quantitative index system that influences the evolution of network mass incidents are required.The system helps collect the index data rapidly after the incident happens,eliminate the instability of subjective aspect,and provides a basis for the government to formulate response measures based on event data analysis results.[Research method]510 major network mass incidents in China from 2014 to 2021 were collected and analyzed,and an index system affecting the evolution of the incidents was constructed.Seventeen impact factors and four effect factors were assumed.A multidimensional factor model was constructed based on Mplus software to analyze the direction and degree of the influence of each indicator on the evolution of network mass incidents.[Research conclusion]According to the model verification and the analysis of the results,the rationality of the index hypothesis is supported,and it is proved that the three dimensions of"event attribute""media""network heat"and 17 influencing factors have a great influence on the evolution of network mass events.

关 键 词：网络群体性事件 全定量型指标体系 多维因子模型 结构方程模型 影响机制 

分 类 号：G209[文化科学—传播学]