社会民生事件中网络舆情演化与引导机制研究  

Research on the Evolution and Guidance Mechanism of Network Public Opinion in Social Livelihood Events

作　　者：冯雯璐 苏健威 杜义华[1] 齐宝森 Feng Wenlu;Su Jianwei;Du Yihua;Qi Baosen(Computer Network Information Center,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190;Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院计算机网络信息中心,北京100190 [2]北京师范大学,北京100875

出　　处：《情报杂志》2022年第8期112-120,共9页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：中国博士后科学基金资助项目“网络虚假信息传播机制与治理策略研究”(编号:2020M680683);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(C类)资助项目“互联网信息传播引导技术研究及示范”(编号:XDC02060100)研究成果之一。

摘　　要：[研究目的]针对智媒时代网络舆情呈现出的多变性、聚焦性、盲从性等特点,以及谣言泛滥、网络对峙、集群效应等舆情极化现象,开展新的网络舆论生态结构下舆情演化规律和引导策略相关研究,以期为决策者科学制定舆情应对方案提供参考依据。[研究方法]选取2016—2021年间36起社会民生舆情典型案例,运用计算传播研究方法,进行舆情演化机制的定性比较分析,构建负面情感引导模型,开展“时度效”仿真分析,提出以网民实际需求为导向的分众化舆情引导策略。[研究结论]研究发现,社会民生事件在多参与主体交互作用下,有较明显的网络发酵过程;公众有较强情感诉求,媒体和意见领袖参与数量多,能够引发共情心理,共同构成引致此类舆情事件的内在机制;舆论引导实践中,应采取“先度后时”原则,以疏解网民情感为核心,采取针对性引导策略,真正做到合时、适度、有效。[Research purpose]Aiming at the new characteristics of changeability,focus and blind obedience in the era of intelligent media,as well as the polarization phenomena of public opinion such as the spread of rumors,network confrontation,and the cluster effect,the paper attempts to carry out relevant research on the evolution law and guidance strategy of public opinion under the new ecological structure of online public opinion,provide reference for decision makers to formulate scientific public opinion response plans.[Research method]Under the background,the paper selects 36 typical cases of social livelihood public opinion from 2016 to 2021,and uses computational communication research method to make a qualitative comparative analysis of the evolution mechanism of public opinion,construct the negative emotion guidance model and carry out the"time-degree-effect"simulation analysis to put forward a demassify guidance strategy based on the actual needs of Internet users.[Research conclusion]We find that social livelihood events have obvious network fermentation process under the interaction of multiple participants.In addition,the public has a strong emotional appeal,the media and opinion leaders participate in a large number,leading to the empathy of netizens,which together constitute the internal mechanism for the formation of social livelihood public opinion.In the practice of public opinion guidance,we should adopt the principle of"degree before time",with the core of dispelling the feelings of netizens,adopt targeted guidance strategies,and truly timely,appropriate and effective.

关 键 词：网络舆情 舆情演化 舆情引导 时度效 负面情感 计算传播 

分 类 号：G206[文化科学—传播学]