基于最佳变换转移函数的我国失业率干扰过程研究  

Study on the Disturbance Process of Unemployment Rate in China Based on the Optimal Transformation Transfer Function

作　　者：汪志红 谌新民[2] WANG Zhi-hong;CHEN Xin-min(Financial Mathematics and Statistics Dept.,Guangdong University of Finance,Guangzhou 510521,China;Colleges of Economics and Management,South China Normal University,Guangzhou 510631,China)

机构地区：[1]广东金融学院金融数学与统计学院,广东广州510521 [2]华南师范大学经济与管理学院,广东广州510631

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2022年第7期67-76,共10页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目:“中国制造2025”高技能人才多维支撑与优化匹配研究(18BGL131)。

摘　　要：基于新冠疫情对我国失业率冲击的非线性过程特征以及非线性变换转移函数确定客观性不足的问题,借助互相关系数和组合循环遍历方法确定最优非线性变换转移函数,系统性确定最佳的新冠疫情干扰ARIMAX模型.以我国人口失业率冲击为实证研究显示,新冠疫情突发事件与稳就业政策对我国失业率有显著的强稳定影响,理论和直观证实新冠疫情对我国失业率的冲击呈主"V"型波动过程,我国稳就业政策降低失业率效果显著,新冠疫情的冲击幅度会因忽视稳就业政策的对冲影响而被强弱化,基于系统非线性过程的新冠疫情干扰过程研究能够提高冲击影响结论的精准度.Based on the characteristics of the nonlinear process of the impact of COVID-19 on China's unemployment rate and the lack of objectivity in determining the nonlinear transformation transfer function,this paper optimizes the nonlinear transformation transfer function with the help of the cross-correlation coefficient and the composite loop traversal met hod,and systematically det ermines the bes t ARIMAX model of COVID-19 disturbance.The empirical study of China's population unemployment rate shows that COVID-19 emergencies and employment stabilization policies have a.significant and stable impact on China's unemployment rate.It is theoretically and intuitively confirmed,that the impact of COVID-19 on China's unemployment rate shows a main“V-shaped”fluctuation,process,and China's employment stabilization policies have,a significant effect on reducing unemployment rate.The magnitude of the impact of COVID-19 will be weakened by ignoring the hedging effect of stable employment policies.The study of the interference process of COVID-19 based on the system nonlinear process can improve the accuracy of the conclusion of the impact of COVID-19.

关 键 词：变换转移函数 失业率 组合循环遍历 ARIMAX模型 

分 类 号：F249.2[经济管理—劳动经济]