消费金融能否助力经济增长?--基于消费金融公司试点推广的准自然实验  

Can Consumer Finance Promote Economic Growth?A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on the Consumer Finance Company Pilots Promotion

作　　者：张建刚[1] 沈蓉 邢苗[1] ZHANG Jian-gang;SHEN Rong;XING Miao(College of Economics and Management,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao266590,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学经济管理学院,山东青岛266590

出　　处：《消费经济》2022年第3期28-39,共12页Consumer Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71902105)。

摘　　要：消费金融是促消费扩内需、推动国内大循环、助力经济增长的重要驱动力。文章以我国2009年开展的消费金融公司试点推广为准自然实验,采用多时点双重差分模型、中介效应模型、合成控制法等方法,针对消费金融对经济增长的影响效应、作用机制与异质性进行检验评估。研究发现,消费金融对经济增长具有显著的正向推动作用,但其效果远弱于房地产投资和社会保障水平。作用机制检验结果表明,消费金融主要通过促进产业结构优化升级和拉动消费来助力经济增长。进一步的异质性检验发现,因城市间资源禀赋、消费金融生态环境等存在差异,消费金融对经济增长的影响效应不尽相同。研究结论有助于促进消费金融良性发展,推动我国消费金融政策的优化与经验推广。这对新发展格局下,促消费扩内需、推动国内大循环、助力经济增长具有重要意义。Consumer finance is an important driving force to promote consumption,expand domestic demand,promote domestic circulation and boost economic growth.This paper takes the pilots promotion of consumer finance companies as the quasi-natural experiment,uses the methods of time-varying DID model,intermediary effect model and synthetic control method to test and evaluate the impact,mechanism and heterogeneity of consumer finance on economic growth.It is found that consumer finance has a significant positive role in promoting economic growth,but its effect is far weaker than real estate investment and social security level.The test results of action mechanism show that consumer finance mainly promotes economic growth by promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and stimulating consumption.Through further heterogeneity test,it is found that the effect is heterogeneous due to different resource endowments and consumer financial ecological environment among cities.The research conclusion is helpful to promote the benign development of consumer finance and promote the optimization and experience promotion of China’s consumer finance policies.This is of great significance to promoting consumption,expanding domestic demand,promoting domestic circulation and boosting economic growth under the new development pattern.

关 键 词：消费金融 经济增长 消费金融公司试点 双重差分模型 合成控制法 

分 类 号：F932.1[经济管理]