基于改进云物元的山东省城市生态安全评价及贡献度分析  

Evaluation and Contribution Analysis of Urban Ecological Security in Shandong Province Based on Improved Cloud Matter Element

作　　者：吴梦成 孙燕[1] 刘倩 WU Meng-cheng;SUN Yan;LIU Qian(College of Engineering,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学工程学院,青岛266100

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2022年第20期8986-8994,共9页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51309209)。

摘　　要：基于压力-状态-响应(pressure-state-response, PSR)模型建立城市生态安全评价体系,提出一种改进的云物元模型,利用云模型的双重不确定性和物元可拓理论相结合定性定量分析,对山东省2009—2019年城市生态安全进行综合评价,并重点研究济南市生态安全及指标贡献度。结果表明:该模型所给出的生态安全指数既能描述生态安全状况,亦可对不同城市进行比较。济南市虽一直处于临界安全状态,但生态安全指数稳步上升,受生态系统压力和状态影响较大。山东省16个地级市生态安全状况存在明显差异,整体呈上升趋势,但总体处于临界安全级别,威海、青岛、济南市处于排名前列,德州、枣庄、菏泽市处于较不安全。建议山东省政府注意区域发展的不平衡性,制定相关政策方案来缩小各城市间的差距。Based on the pressure-state-response(PSR)model,the evaluation system of urban ecological security was established,and an improved cloud matter-element model was proposed.By using the double uncertainty of cloud model and matter-element extension theory,the comprehensive evaluation of urban ecological security in Shandong Province from 2009 to 2019 was carried out,and the ecological security and index contribution of Jinan City were mainly studied.The results show that the ecological security index given by the model can not only describe the ecological security situation,but also compare different cities.Although Jinan has been in a critical state of security,the ecological security index has been rising steadily,which is greatly affected by the pressure and state of the ecosystem.The ecological security status of 16 prefecture level cities in Shandong Province has obvious differences,and the overall trend is on the rise,but the overall level is in the critical security level,Weihai,Qingdao and Jinan are in the forefront,while Dezhou,Zaozhuang and Heze are less secure.Shandong provincial government should pay attention to the imbalance of regional development and formulate relevant policies to narrow the gap between cities.

关 键 词：云模型 改进云物元 城市生态安全 压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型 山东省 贡献度 

分 类 号：X913.4[环境科学与工程—安全科学]